Queenslanders vote for safe pair of hands

I’d provisionally attribute this to the party now being seen as a creature of the south-east, with that view articulated by Katter and One Nation.

There are different swings in different areas. Across the Gold Coast the two-party preferred vote seems to have moved around 3% against the LNP. Not enough to snare any of the seats. A general swing is also evident on the Sunshine Coast.

But in general the seats changing hands are ones which were vacant. Pumicestone’s one-term LNP member retired at this election, as did Caloundra’s long-term member, and a former parliamentary leader of the Liberal Party, Mark McCardle. Hervey Bay was another where the incumbent retired. The swings in these seats were in the order of 5% or more to the ALP.

In Brisbane, all of the LNP seats were vulnerable to the ALP on a swing of 5% or better, but each held, and perhaps with improved margins, once all the votes are in. First time members also did well, including Labor members Bart Mellish in Aspley and Corrine McMillan in Mansfield (both targeted by the LNP).

Our early qualitative polling showed that electors were looking past COVID for a plan for rebooting the economy, and they were particularly concerned about jobs, so plans featured in both parties’ rhetoric.

Yet both became threadbare as the election continued. Labor’s amounted to a public service jobs splurge, some infrastructure spending, and a plan to invest money in private businesses, all funded by another $4 Bn in borrowings. The LNP’s was the New Bradfield Scheme, and widening of the Bruce Highway to Townsville, a modest public service jobs splurge, and $300 off your rego.

The LNP’s pitch ultimately came undone when they released their costings. Despite saying there would be no new borrowings, there were - $1.7 Bn worth - and the major funding for their signature infrastructure projects were pushed into the second term of government.

The LNP lost the election. Labor campaigned as though they were the  opposition – lots of negative advertising and personal attacks. The LNP campaigned as though they were the government – big projects and defending their position, but without calling Labor to account. No surprise, as this is the way they’d conducted themselves in parliament. As a result they hadn’t laid down the foundation for attack.

They also seemed to have trouble settling on a message. This wasn’t a problem for Labor. With “we kept you safe during the pandemic” being the only coherent message, voters went with that, except where they had a local member who had earned their faith.

If this member was Labor, the swing was accentuated, and if LNP, it was mitigated.

With Labor’s small margin of victory the LNP will be anticipating the next election, but if they are to do any better they need to spend the next 4 years rebuilding and renovating.

If you can’t campaign you will rarely get to govern.