Black Summer whitewash – a preview of Armageddon

However, his associate Dr. Matthias Boer, when formerly employed in Western Australia, had analysed real long-term data showing that, if you do enough broadscale burning (a minimum of about 10% of the region), it reduces the occurrence of megafires in extreme fire seasons. Unstoppable firestorms cannot develop in a well-managed landscape. This was evident more than two centuries ago, when European colonists at Sydney and Parramatta used hand tools and green branches to contain fires during the Settlement Drought. Back then, weather conditions were equal to the worst extremes of our Black Summer. Aboriginal fires were constantly burning in sandstone country to the northwest that is now wilderness. But it was open and safe country because of those fires.

Now Bradstock's team is going to teach us how to best spend our scarce resources by doing limited burning at the edge of the wilderness. He has very successfully promoted his opinions in the media, and Wollongong University is a major beneficiary of $4 million funding for bushfire research from NSW Government. It disturbs me greatly that NSW Bushfire Inquiry seems to have Professor Bradstock as an expert advisor rather than as a witness.

Secondly, I believe that the RFS High Command knows full well that there are still explosive fuels to the northwest of Eden, which will inevitably blow up when ignited in extreme weather. But, instead of taking action to prevent further catastrophe, they seem to be using the climate cop-out and cranking up the propaganda machine for a pre-emptive spin on the next disaster:

The fire-ravaged New South Wales south coast could burn again this year if rain doesn't fall in coming months, fire chiefs have warned. … areas of the NSW south coast that didn't burn last season had above normal fire potential … NSW Rural Fire Service Commissioner Rob Rogers told News Corp that despite the devastation in December and January, an area north of Eden, out to the ranges and up to the west of Bega that did not burn earlier this year remained vulnerable.

Rogers reportedly told Newscorp that "There are still quite a lot of areas that didn't burn, and that area is still really dry. We'll be watching really closely … Rain had prevented the RFS from doing more prescribed burning recently". One wonders whether the Commissioner contradicted himself or the reporter got it wrong. In any case, it seems that the academics don't really care. Bradstock's Associate Professor in Wollongong, Owen Price, reportedly said "The chances of a disaster are very small". People in Eden aren't the slightest bit comforted, and they don't need experts with computers to tell them what needs to be done.

Last week, Commissioner Rogers was confirmed in his appointment and he set out his priorities for the coming fire season. Top of the list are better smoke masks, helmets, trucks and two-way radios; and working with farmers to reduce fuel loads. However, the RFS Bush Fire Environmental Assessment Code restricts burning so that it cannot be done frequently and mildly enough to maintain a healthy and safe landscape. It is effectively illegal for farmers or anyone else to manage the bush sustainably.

Thirdly, the title of the Royal Commission into Natural Disasters and the inclusion of a climate policy expert seem to point to a predictable conclusion. The Letters Patent direct the Commission to have regard to the findings and recommendations of other reports and inquiries, but when they finally published my submission, they redacted the names of Gary Nairn, who chaired the Parliamentary Inquiry in 2003; Ellis, Kanowski and Whelan, who wrote the 2004 COAG report; and Professor Bradstock who has been advising NSW on bushfires for many years. Their names and findings or advice are already well and truly on the public record.

I think that the outcomes of fifteen years of fire management according to the recommendations of the fire chiefs and academics are quite clear. But it seems likely that Black Summer will be attributed to climate change, the fire chiefs and academics will get more money to build their empires, and we will get more of the same.