Total lockdown and Henrik Ibsen

If we narrowly escape having to go back into Stage 3 more widely, how much worse off would we be if we had instead prolonged the previous Stage 3 for longer? The government proclaims that an "on off" policy of successive waves would be worse. True enough. But why would narrowly avoiding the first "on off" be confirmation that they are on the right track? Doesn't it rather confirm that their policy of lifting the restrictions to the present level was a blunder that has not resulted in opening up the economy but rather left us in limbo waiting for the next outbreak?

There needs to be some serious detailed study based on scientific evidence.

That is not the function of an administrative inquiry.

But there is now an administrative inquiry. If it does its job it should at least spell out the need for a scientific inquiry:

The administrative inquiry to examine the operation of Victoria's hotel quarantine program for returning travellers will begin promptly to examine a range of matters that includes "policies" and "decisions and actions" of government agencies.

With a budget of $3 million a report is due by Friday, 25 September 2020. That is about 10 weeks.

The inquiry is headed by one of the former Royal Commissioners into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse with experience on the Coroner's Court.

The necessary administrative changes have presumably already been made. A formal inquiry may or may not contribute to fully absorbing lessons learned, and either deflecting or promoting political, and legal accountability both civil and criminal.

But wouldn't it be interesting if the inquiry did take up its mandate to examine "policies"?

It has been proclaimed loud and clear that the underlying policies are "suppression" as opposed to "eradication", that outbreaks and deaths are to be expected as part of the "new normal" in adapting and learning to live with the virus.

The aim of that policy is to avoid overwhelming the hospitals with a surge of cases while opening up the economy as rapidly and safely as feasible. The current lockdowns in Victoria are cited by public health officials as a textbook example of that policy in action, with deaths expected as a result.

That policy is the underlying root of this and every future outbreak, any one of which could become another epidemic wave as long as there is no vaccine and the current lack of restrictions remains in place.