Memo to the prime minister: speak less, lead more

In the COVID-19crisis, like most crises, leaders are charged with two equally important tasks: to solve the immediate problem and to keep it from happening again. The current COVID pandemic is one such example. Leaders need to ensure sufficient ICU beds are/will be available to treat the say 20% of the population for whom age and medical history indicates that mortality is a distinct possibility and for the other 80%, all must be done to reduce the instances of diffusion of the disease and the severity of morbidities.

The United States' Centres for Disease Control & Prevention explains that the virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person:

• Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet) and
• through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

Accordingly, the best way to prevent illness is to avoid being exposed to this virus. That means taking all steps necessary to contain the disease within a community (nursing homes, restaurants, cafes, public bars, major events, sports clubs, public swimming pools, gymnasiums etc) as well as not increasing the burden on the health care sector by, for instance, allowing arriving travellers to possibly infect the homeland.

Have our leaders including, but not limited to the Prime Minister, Scott Morrison and NSW Minister of Health, Brad Hazzard been served well by the experts and bureaucrats upon whom they rely? Other jurisdictions, such as Singapore, the United States and Germany have already rolled out education campaigns or released crucial information about the disease. Information that in Australia, has until yesterday been invisible at worst and patchy at best. On Sunday the Commonwealth gave a $30 million fillip to the advertising and media industries by way of a COVID-19 information campaign. Alas a cursory look at it disappoints. For instance, mention is made that hand washing is important to keep the virus at bay. Sounds good, right? But a look at comparable media sites overseas, such as the United States' Centres for Disease Control & Prevention makes clear that not "hand washing" per se, but 20-30 seconds of keeping hands clean, while the tap is closed, is what is required. And 20 seconds of proper hand drying thereafter doesn't hurt. The science behind the CDC's recommendation is compelling. Another let down is Australia's Department of Health's video targeting arriving travellers that suggests that those who query if they have symptoms of the virus or have come into contact with the virus should stay at home.

Have we not already passed the time of suggesting to the potentially infected persons to self isolate?

Israel, like Singapore is another leader in aggressively tackling COVID-19. It realised weeks ago that arrivals only increases (not decreases) the spread of the virus, no matter how well contained it is in the country. On 9 March it responded aggressively by becoming the first country to compel all arrivals (both tourists and nationals) to self quarantine for 14 days.This follows Israel's foresight on 23 February to deny deplaning of tourists flying from Seoul on Korean Air KE957 for fear of yet more diffusion of the virus in Israel. Earlier a group of Korean pilgrims who visited Israel were found to be infected. The tracing of who these Koreans contacted while in Israel (many but not all in the hospitality sector) proved to be very time consuming. While Seoul criticised Jerusalem's decision, a couple of weeks later others, including Australia decided to close the runways toKorean visitors.

Citizens in the United States are informed that the disease can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems. Not exactly the same messaging we're receiving. The data so far suggests that the virus has a fatality risk around 3.4%; this rate would make it many, many times more grave than typical seasonal influenza. COVID-19 is transmitted quite efficiently, with the average infected person spreading the disease to two or three persons. There is also strong evidence that it can be transmitted by people who are even slightlyill.Following the airlifting of German nationals from Hubei Province on 1 February, testing by University Hospital Frankfurt and the Institute of Virology, Philipps University in Marburg found that some of those passengers that initially passed the symptoms-based screening later were confirmed as suffering from COVID-19. The Germans concluded that COVID-19 will be much harder to bed down than the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which were spread only by symptomatic people.

Contrast this with developments in Australia.

Last Tuesday the Sydney Morning Herald reported that the nation's Chief Medical Officer, Brendan Murphy claimed that the "existing travel bans were precautionary and no more were recommended" and that "you cannot fully isolate the country".

Spoken like a hard working lobbyist for the tourism sector.

Murphy's comments were preceded by similar outbursts a couple of weeks earlier, by a major promotor of global travel, the World Travel and Tourism Council that released a statement calling for continued travel and tourism and making the patently self-serving and grossly irresponsible statement that "closing borders, blanket travel bans....will not stop the spread of the coronavirus".

If that statement was true, why did Italy lockdown an entire republic, greatly curtailing the movement of Italians both within and without its borders? Why did Indonesia refuse entry to the MV Viking Sun,a cruise ship, even though no cases of COVID-19 were reported on board? Why did the City of San Francisco do likewise? Why does the United States Department of State recommend against cruise travel?

Politicians and their health experts claim all is being done to safeguard the homeland. But is it, really? Putting aside those from the PRC, Korea and Iran, our borders are as wide open to overseas visitors as the doors of a brothel are to all but the patently inebriated.

Nearly 100 countries are burdened with COVID-19 sufferers. Apart from airlines, airport owners,hotel proprietors, tour operators and restaurants, just who benefits from the multiple daily flights from Singapore, Thailand, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan, the UAE (the key transit point for European tourists flying to Australia with Qantas, Emiratesand Etihad) allowed to land at Australian airports?

Also from the Arabian Gulf, one of the finest, if not the finest, airlines around, Qatar Airways carries who know how many diseased Europeans to Australia daily from its hub in Doha, Qatar, where there are no less 320 confirmed COVID-19 cases.

On the weekend Poland bolted its doors to foreigners and now requires 14 days of self quarantine for its own arriving nationals. New Zealand chimed in too, requiring all arrivals to self isolate for 14 days, including NZ passport holders. South Pacific Islanders are exempted from this policy given they have no confirmed cases of COVID-19. One can only wonder if "no confirmed cases" is more a result of insufficient or ineffective screening of South Pacific islanders than a testament to the islanders' robust health.

Job #1 for Scott Morrison is to contain the spread of COVID-19 and minimise the number of new cases. A fact the tourism lobby and perhaps politicians do not want aired is that no arriving tourist lowers the disease risk profile for the Australian population. Some tourists may bring evidence of COVID-19 with them, while others may by symptomatic only after arriving.

How many Australians will they infect once within our borders?

Just who are we kidding that those ill tourists will self quarantine?

Is anyone tasked with monitoring the self quarantined?

We have seen inNSW and Tasmania that Australians told to self quarantine have flouted those instructions and infected who knows how many? We have seen conferences, schools, doctors' surgeries and nursing homes infected. Soon we will see backpackers' lodges, hotels, cinemas, tourist sites, shopping malls, cafes and churches succumb to the disease. France closed countless cafes and restaurants on the weekend.

Australia's public health officials looking for the contacts of an infected individual to see if he or she is infected and then checking the contacts of the contacts to verify if they are infected is to be applauded. Butthis is a labour intensive process whose job is made much harder when more potential carriers of the virus fly into Australia's airports. Think of ASIO expending treasure to monitor countless unsavoury individuals domestically, only to be challenged by having that job exacerbated exponentially with say Da'esh terrorists and their families, in their hundreds or even in their tens, returning to Australia. All of whom should, in the interest of public safety, be monitored. But there are constraints on ASIO: budgets and staff. Surely it's safer for the Australian community and makes ASIO's intelligence officers' jobs easier if those currently in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq or Turkey, remain there and keep well away from our borders.

The Commonwealth's effort to vanquish the pandemic must however not be limited to non-Australians. While Australians are discouraged from travelling overseas, they are not prohibited from doing so. Just how many Australian travellers will say, return with the virus, regardless of whether they are symptomatic or not when they traverse SmartGate at Kingsford Smith and Tullamarine? Surely the timehas come to not only hit the "pause" button on inbound tourism by advising tourists that their stay in Australia will begin with 14 days of quarantine on arrival, but to also inform Australians jetting overseas that if they are travelling for say 14 days or less, that on their return to Australia, they too will be subjected to mandatory quarantine as guests of the Commonwealth?

COVID-19 will exact a huge financial cost from the Australian economy. About that we can do very little. What we can do and must do is minimise the mortality and morbidity numbers but putting a lid on the spread of the disease.

Politicians and their health experts must place the health of Australians first, to the wholesale exclusion of competing interests. This includes ignoring special interest groups arguing for corporate welfare (such as rugby league) or screaming their alleged special status (such as the tourism sector).

If the Morrison government really wants to take the fight to COVID-19, it must sever its relationships with lobbyists from all manner of industries and focus on the health aspect alone. It can best do that by moving the management of this crisis out of its hands and into the hands of a taskforce comprised of scientists (domestic and perhaps also foreign), chaired by a medically qualified professional assisted by say a highly respected non-scientist in the capacity of say, deputy chair.

Two great Australian names immediately come to mind: arguably one Australia's finest minds and communicators of science, Dr Norman Swan and an Australian patriot with a long history of civic contributions (apart from his entrepreneurship, philanthropy and aviation firsts), Dick Smith.

These gentlemen are people Australians trust and their informed views will have traction in the community. More importantly they come free of political baggage.

Their task force must be given a remit to put forward what steps, benign or otherwise, must be employed by Australian governments and what legislation (if any) must be adjusted or enacted to realise the goal of saving Australian lives. This naturally includes studying how other jurisdictions have addressed COVID-19 and if need be, advocate ways to prepare Australians for unprecedented measures that may include limits on freedom of movement.

We have a crisis that needs to be acted upon quickly, aggressively and analytically. It doesn't hurt one jot that such a task force could more easily that politicians, turn a tin ear to the unwelcome noise of panhandling special interests and instead focus undiluted on saving Australian lives.