The global environment in 2050: a realist and liberal democratic perspective

With California having a cap-and-trade program and nine other US states already setting  a cap on emissions from the power sector and require companies to buy tradable pollution permits, China since 2011 has also been experimenting with cap-and-trade programs in several pilot cities (including Shanghai and Shenzhen) with Chinese officials talking with representatives from California and the EU as part of its plan to gradually roll out a nationwide cap-and-trade program.

We can see this through a commitment to better farming practises, as noted by the past loss of forests creating grass and heathland to support traditional farming practices that were also wildlife friendly up until 1940. 

We see this through innovation by Australian farmers, backed by government, to store carbon and increase productivity by selling carbon credits.

We see this through sensible biomass planning, given a current estimate that 700 million hectares of land will be needed for bioenergy feedstocks in a 1.5°C global warming scenario. For example, Sweden’s use of biomass for its energy needs reached 47% in 2017, mostly from managed forests, while researchers at the University of Oxford are experimenting with the more water-efficient succulent plants that can help dryland populations obtain energy given they would struggle to maintain solar and wind facilities.

We can see this through sensible debate about population numbers. After all, even Australia, despite its high per capita resources and per capita surface water levels, has its own problems given that its  dry continent requires considerable water for agricultural production which is also being lost to housing as Australia’s population grew by more than 380,000 people in the 12 months to June 30, 2019 to reach 25 million.

We see this by Western governments implementing laws that boost the ability of consumers to repair phones and other electronic goods rather than throw them away after the ‘right to repair’ movement emerged to counter design concepts that “deliberately seek the high turnover in goods” by voiding a product’s warranty when a repair job is attempted.

We may see this through better consumer choices which weigh up the environmental cost of products, albeit many consumers will continue to purchase what they can afford. For example, with Volkswagen intending to spend over $US30 billion on electric vehicles by 2023 with an aim for such cars to 40% of its global sales by 2030, consumers of electric cars may consider purchases which take account of energy savings that include where the battery is made, how it is made, and what source of energy is used to make it or fuel it.

We may see this through higher density living which may result from consumer choice or even necessity as people confront tougher economic times given that the average size of a house in Australia increased from around 100 square metres in 1950 to 230.8 square metres as of 2017-18, albeit the average home was 186.3 square metres when taking account of apartment sales (average 124.8 square metres).  

Liberal democracies may continue to reduce per capita emissions by choosing carpooling or public transport; purchasing energy-efficient products; reducing landfill by recycling and composting; buying products with minimal packaging; reducing food waste given a United Nations estimate that it accounts for up to 10% of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions by rotting in landfills and emitting methane; and reducing their meat intake (especially beef) which has a much larger carbon footprint per calorie when compared to grain or vegetable products.

In the end, however, our national example is all we have as liberal democracies as the world remains driven by cheaper consumer choices for products produced around the world as we continue to rely on economic growth for our salvation.

We can only hope that the world unravels new forms of technology to address the planet’s sustainability as we currently know it.

For example, academic researchers and the private sector are working on the compression of carbon into hard rock for storage underground, which even has the potential to be used as a building material, while Chinese scientists continue to work on heating plasma (a hot ionised gas) to temperatures of 100-200 million degrees Celsius in the hope that such fusion reaction becomes viable by producing more power than it uses.  

In this world of very different societies in terms of wealth and ideas, it remains to be seen how innovative humanity can become by 2050 to address or even temper global environmental degradation in this human-centric world.