The Murray-Darling Plan involves a huge waste of water and money

According to the Productivity Commission (2018) the $13 billion plan risks all-together failing due to poor governance, "unrealistic" deadlines and budget blow-outs. About $6.7 billion had been spent to recover about 2000 gigalitres (GL), and there is still $4.5 billion to be spent. In the Commission's view, the significant risks to implementation cannot be managed effectively under current institutional and governance arrangements, and reform is required.

There have been other criticisms of the implementation of the Basin Plan:

• An ABC Four Corners report on water rights buybacks in July 2019 quoted several spokespeople saying the multi-billion water infrastructure buyback scheme was a "national disgrace" and a complete failure for the environment with no known benefit to the river systems.
• It is widely believed that the Government paid far too much for the water it bought off farmers. For example, an analysis by the Australian Financial Reviewshows the federal government paid at least a $40 million premium for the Twynam water licences in the Lachlan valley.
• The purchase of water in the Lachlan catchment does not assist the Lower Lakes. (The Lachlan River, under average flow conditions, terminates in ephemeral wetlands and distributary creeks around Hillston and Booligal, and only after a one in 50 year major flood does its water reach the Murrumbidgee, and flow onwards to SA.)
• The plan to take 450GL more water for environmental flows is one of the most controversial policies remaining in the Murray-Darling Basin Plan and is now (for political reasons) unlikely to go ahead.
• There is widespread bitterness among irrigators because they feel that large amounts of water are being drained down to South Australia for no real benefit.
• Through changes in trading rules, irrigation water is increasingly going to cotton and nuts, which are becoming dominant commodities in the Basin. This, along with reduced water for irrigation, is causing a real loss of family farms, especially in dairying and fodder production.

There are two underlying factors distorting water policies for inland Australia. Firstly, such policies are heavily driven by national and state politics. Secondly, policies have been diverted in a major way by political attempts to buy votes in South Australia (just like defence acquisition programmes for new submarines and frigates) and by efforts to appease city-based environmentalists.

The Murray-Darling Basin Plan grew from a $10 billion pledge by John Howard at the height of the millennium drought in January 2007. Under the Rudd/Gillard governments the commitment to the environment grew to 2,750 GL, which was to be either bought from irrigators or created by water saving measures. The plan was finally adopted under the Gillard Government in November 2012, when it received bipartisan support in Parliament. Victoria, South Australia and the ACT signed up relatively quickly but NSW was the big holdout. Queensland and New South Wales have finally agreed in February 2014. Why NSW ever agreed to a plan so obviously against the State's interests is unfathomable.

The Morrison Government has recently struck a deal worth almost $100 million so that the South Australian Government can turn on its desalination plant to service Adelaide, leaving 100 gigalitres to be used to grow fodder upstream. While details are unsettled, the water apparently will be sold to irrigators for $100 a megalitre).

The deal presents itself as economic insanity because the real cost of the water (including subsidy) is $1000 a megalitre, a price at which irrigated fodder production is totally uneconomic. It is also uncertain whether the drought will break prior to such production coming on stream. (In such a scenario, you could end up with a glut of unwanted fodder.)

Even though the Basin Plan has been greatly discredited, it will be very difficult politically for a federal Government to walk away from it (especially a Government with a one-seat majority). Given the irregular rainfall patterns to which our continent is subject, unrealistic notions of making ephemeral rivers (filled with fish) flow all the time, converting estuarine systems to freshwater lakes, and trying to turn semi-permanent wetlands into permanent ones were never viable long term options. Governments are destroying our irrigation industry to achieve the unachievable.

People ignorant of Australia's natural history have been driven to panic through sensational reporting of the drought and recent climate events. This has resulted in a "something has to be done" mentality, which nearly always results in expensive policies that won't work.