UMNO-PAS will win the next general election

With many of the seats Pakatan holds being notionally UMNO-PAS, retaining them will be an uphill task, even if Pakatan can improve its electoral popularity. Voters in the Malay heartlands, who are concerned with the cost of living, making an adequate income, and seeing their children get employment after graduation will determine the next election. They don’t understand the 1MDB scandal and the long-running trial. Personal wellbeing, and local infrastructure development are what is important.

Middle-class Malaysians who are disappointed with Pakatan’s failure to deliver reforms are primarily situated in urban and mixed urban/rural seats where incumbent MPs have large majorities. A decline in support by this group won’t result in a loss of too many seats for Pakatan.

The next state election in Sarawak, due by 2021 will indicate the support for Pakatan and UMNO-PAS. Sabah is always a wild card due to the common practice of switching party allegiances by MPs after elections.

UMNO-PAS will play on the insecurities of the rural electorates and paint Pakatan as anti-Malay and anti-Islam, which will be returned by Pakatan politicians with similar rhetoric.  Pakatan can hope that the UMNO-PAS alliance falters and implodes, which could well happen given PAS’s track record with previous alliances. People within UMNO and PAS unhappy with seat allocations will sabotage their own alliance candidates in some seats. Supporters of UMNO may not vote for PAS candidates and visa versa due to deep-seated hate some have for their former adversaries. This is an area that Pakatan must exploit, if they have any hope of holding onto government.

UMNO could be greatly weakened electorally if a number of UMNO members don’t vote because of discontent with the UMNO-PAS alliance. There were many notable UMNO leaders who weren’t at the formalization ceremony. Another issue is the poor credibility of he UMNO-PAS leadership.  

Pakatan could sabotage the UMNO-PAS alliance by seeking the Registrar of Societies (ROS) to order the dissolution of UMNO due to infringements of party election rules. This could greatly weaken the alliance before the election, if there is no time for UMNO to regroup.

The odds are that Mahathir will retire as prime minister in the year before the next general election and not recontest his seat. This would leave Anwar as the spearhead of the Pakatan campaign, which would suit the UMNO-PAS leadership perfectly.

Based on the above analysis, DAP would be left with 41 seats and PKR with 35 seats forming the opposition with a handful of Amanah and Bersatu MPs. The Mahathir era would be finished with little legacy to show. His party Bersatu would be almost destroyed without any strong successor to rebuild it. Anwar may hold the office of prime minister for a short time, fulfilling his ambition. PKR would have to rebuild the party in the post-Anwar era. Which way the party goes will depend on which faction comes out stronger electorally.

The percentage of Malays in the general population has been steadily increasing over the years. Malays represent just over 50 percent of Malaysia’s population. Malay-centric politics will be necessary to win elections. The big question is whether there are any alternative Malay-centric narratives which accommodate reform that would be acceptable to the portion of the electorate that is the king maker, the Malay heartlands?  Otherwise Malaysia will be trapped in the current racist-Malay-Islamic rhetoric.