UMNO-PAS will win the next general election

What is likely to happen next general election

Forecasting three years ahead is fraught, as political dynamics can change very quickly. However, we can employ three simple assumptions:

There will be no three-way political contests between UMNO and PAS

UMNO and PAS supporters will accept the new political alliance, and

General voting patterns can be expected to remain similar to last election.

That would mean Pakatan’s parliamentary representation would decrease from the 121 seats they currently hold to around 83. UMNO-PAS would increase its seats from the current 97 to 123, allowing it to comfortably form the next federal government. Pakatan would also lose Kedah and Perak at the state level along with Melaka. Negri Sembilan would be a cliff-hangar. Pakatan might narrowly hang onto Selangor and lose 12 seats in the Johor State Assembly. DAP would hold onto Penang without any problems.

Five cabinet ministers, Saifuddin Abdullah, Saifuddin Nausution Ismail, Mohd Redzuan Md Yusof, Baru Bian, and Mujahad Yusof Rawa would lose their parliamentary seats. Education minister Maszlee Malik and Youth and Sports Minister Syed Saddiq are also be likely to lose. Assuming Mahathir, who would then be 96 or 97 years of age leaves politics, Langkawi would probably go to UMNO-PAS. Mahathir’s son Mukhriz in the neighboring federal seat of Jerlun would also lose his seat, as would Nurul Izzah if she recontests her seat in Permatang Puah. All but one of the UMNO defectors to Bersatu, Mustapha Mohamed would likely and end their political careers.

Bersatu would be decimated to only three seats, Amanah five, PKR 35s. DAP would only lose one seat.

This result would be worse if the trends shown in the last few by-elections are any indication. For example, a 5 percent drop in voter turnout of Malays who supported Pakatan in the past general election would result in the loss of even more seats. A 10-20 percent drop in non-Malay turnout in mixed electorates would lose Pakatan another 10-20.

New voters might offset some of the losses. However, around half of the new voters will be in gerrymandered urban areas. This would favor UMNO-PAS, with new voters in the Malay heartlands identifying much more with their Islamic identity than previous generations.

Pakatan will live and die on Malay-centric politics

Pakatan’s by-election losses in Cameron Highlands, Semenyih, and Rantau indicate that the coalition no longer enjoys the same level of support it had in GE14. The Tanjung Plai seat in the coming by-election in Johor is notionally an UMNO-PAS seat with an approximately 12 percent majority, based on GE14 election figures. In the current environment this deficit for Pakatan would almost be impossible to bridge unless other factors come into the equation, such as the stature of the contesting candidates. A more than probable win to UMNO-PAS would prove the logic behind their alliance is correct.