Is Labor serious about electric vehicles?

Current sales of new passenger cars in Australia are around 1,000,000 p.a. and the size of the nation's total fleet of passenger cars is in the region of 14,500,000 (there's another 3.2 million light commercial vehicles e.g. panel vans, utilities). Suppose on the basis of recent trends that by 2030 annual sales of cars increase to 1,200,000 and the size of the national car fleet increases to 17,200,000.

Given those assumptions, Labor is anticipating 600,000 EVs will be sold in Australia in 2030. That would require a truly phenomenal rate of growth given only around 2,500 EVs were sold in Australia last year. That's average annual growth of around 75% p.a.; it's faster than Moore's Law!

It would be remarkable because the only direct incentive Labor is offering is a $20,000 deduction off the purchase price of company vehicles. There're no direct incentives for private motorists. Moreover, it's likely the 105g CO2/km standard won't be phased in fully until 2025, as recommended by the Climate Change Authority.

It looks ambitious given that only around 20% of Australian dwellings have solar panels, notwithstanding subsidy programs like the Solar Homes and Communities Plan introduced in 2000.

EVs made up 31% of new car sales in Norway last year but they're heavily subsidised by full or partial exemptions from import duties, road tax, sales tax, stamp duty, and company car tax. They also have access to free council parking, use of bus lanes and exemptions from road tolls.

Labor seems to be assuming that the saving from using electricity rather than heavily taxed petrol or diesel will be such a huge incentive that half of all buyers will switch to an EV in 2030. It claims the average driver could save "up to $2,300 from reduced fuel and maintenance costs".

I expect that's a cherry-picked figure, but it's instructive that the higher running costs of SUVs haven't stopped buyers increasingly preferring them over smaller cars. Labor's promise gives EVs only a short time-frame in which to overcome the barriers of high prices, slow charging times, and the perception of limited range.

Some car companies are claiming a range in excess of 300 km and 30-minute charge times, but experience with manufacturers' artificial fuel economy, emission and pollution tests suggests these assertions should be treated with caution.

Another issue is that any market drift toward smaller cars – as Labor's 105g CO2 policy is designed to achieve – will reduce the advantage of EVs over conventional cars. There's also the possibility that the price of petrol could fall significantly in real terms as oil producers belatedly seek to stall the global shift away from oil.

Nevertheless, if Labor's promise is taken as face value, there might be around 1,500,000 EVs on the nation's roads by the end of the next decade. Yet that'd only be around 9% of the national passenger vehicle fleet in 2030. Since cars account for around 10% of Australia's GHG emissions, that would be a relatively modest pay-off in the context of the need for urgent action on climate change.

So, thank you Bill for recognising the need to take action to improve emissions from cars and for promoting the role of EVs. However, if you win next month's election please have a serious look at what a shift to EVs really entails, including the potential downsides, and the actions government should take to expedite the transition. And while I know it's politically difficult, please don't overlook the other problems associated with cars, especially in our crowded cities.