Morrison and Shorten both improve

Twelve months ago, Labor's Robin Hood pitch was front and centre on voters' minds. Now some electors have realised they are the "rich" but they have only modest incomes. Climate change is still working in its favour, but it is not a factor that converts voters.

On the Liberal-Nationals side, debt and deficits have receded as issues.

All this reflects the national conversation. It's summer so there are floods, droughts and bushfires, which leads to climate change. Kerryn Phelps's medivac amendments draw attention to immigration, which links to illegal immigrants, infrastructure and urban congestion. Electricity costs, blackouts and the remarkable expansion of intermittent generation direct the conversation to electricity, which also invokes concerns about the cost of living, and deindustrialisation.

Tim Wilson's parliamentary inquiry into Labor's proposal to abolish cash refunds for excess franking credits has started conversations about retirement policy, drawing attention to Labor tax policies that hurt older Aus­tralians. The Coalition is in front on most of those issues

What does the data suggest the parties should do between now and the election? Labor needs to get back on to its Fair Go agenda and Coalition cuts to health and education. It has the youth vote, largely on grounds of identity politics and climate change, so it doesn't need to belabour them and lose voters to the Right. It needs projects that reach out to older Australians. The fin­ancial services royal commission and the aged-care royal commission provide opportunities.

It also needs to undermine Morrison's reputation of being honest, and competent, and it needs to keep harping on about Coalition ''chaos''. Even among Coalition voters, there is a feeling it might do their side some good to be in opposition.

The Coalition needs to keep the conversation where it is. Even when Labor has a win, such as medivac, it has a loss, because it reminds people of the chaos under Labor on immigration. Labor retirement taxes on houses and shares are making people nervous about the future. They need to engage more fully on renewable energy, and its costs, and they could address the level of immigration. They can accentuate negative perceptions of Shorten, drawing attention to his record as a union leader and his role in ALP coups.

They also need to reach out to a younger cohort. Perhaps painting the Labor's tax on retirees as a tax on inheritance would be one path. Housing affordability is an issue for the young, and many are planning to do it in joint venture with the Bank of Mum and Dad.

Shorten has been acting like the prime minister since just after the last election and it is his to lose. This will be the most fascinating election since the 1993 Fightback! poll.