Can Peter Dutton turn potential rout into strategic defeat?

His first job is to reclaim the base, which has become alienated, demonstrated most recently in the Longman by-election where the LNP first preference vote dropped from 39.01% to 29.61%.

Longman is the seat next to Dutton’s and it is typical of the sort of seat the Liberal Party needs for a safe margin of government.

The LNP first preference vote from last election sprayed everywhere. One Nation was up 6.49%, ALP 4.46% and there was a slew of other minor parties and independents.

While the LNP needs a second preference strategy for some of these voters, second preferences are unreliable (and where they’ve shifted to Labor, unattainable). It needs to grab first preferences. And it can do this.

The great narrative coming out of international elections is that this sort of voter is quite patriotic and they fear they have lost control of their country and even their lives.  Voting for minor, or single interest parties is a way of exerting a greater degree of control.

But they will vote for major parties, as John Howard demonstrated through most of his prime ministership.

Dutton will attractive to these voters. As a former copper, he comes from their class, and this choice of profession shouts order. He’s a plain speaker, and doesn’t use big words.

As the Home Affairs Minister, and formerly Minister for immigration and Border Protection, he was the government’s symbol for control.

Of all the current ministry he is the one most invested in the culture wars, and this should resonate with these voters.

There are at least 10 seats at risk in Queensland, so this could be part of his job done.

But what of south of the border?

Queenslanders aren’t unique, their cousins exist in the middle to outer rings of the great metropolises as well as predominating in rural and regional communities all over the country.