Is Trump rational?

As a long term subscriber to the New York Times, I know that the attitude of the New York Times to Donald Trump, changed when he was nominated as the Republican Presidential Candidate in July 2016.

It is unlikely that the Devil, Genghis Khan and Attila the Hun would actually ever meet in one place. However, the New York Times appears to believe they have all met in the one person, Donald Trump. So, I was more than interested to read in the pages of the New York Times on 29 March, a serious article which was all about Trump, but never mentioned his name. The article was a piece by political commentator and academic Thomas B Edsall. It was called "The 2016 Exit Polls Led US to misinterpret the 2016 Election".

Edsall discussed two recent surveys of democratic and democratic leaning US voters and how they voted in the 2016 presidential election. Both these surveys found that the number of White working class voters were markedly larger than had been previously thought. Importantly White working class voters (those with only a high school degree) were the largest single voting group.

Figure 1: National turnout rates and voter composition 2012 and 2016 presidential elections

SOURCE: Estimates based on authors' analysis of data taken from Bureau of Census, American Community Survey, published November 2017

In Figure 1 above, we have the composition of US voters as shown in a 2017 study by the Centre for American Progress. This shows White working class voters as 45% of voters, Whites with university degrees as 29%, Afro American as 12% and Latino as 9%. White voters without university degrees outnumbered White voters with university degrees by 16% of the population.

Figure 2: Regional Employment Growth

SOURCE: Authors' calculations using Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) Current Population Survey data published March 2018

The number of working class voters was underestimated by pollsters, because college graduates and especially those with post graduate degrees, tend to answer polls more frequently that those with only high school degrees. Importantly, the White working class is also the largest block of Democratic Party voters. Unfortunately, Hillary Clinton only won 28% of White working class votes.

What do White working class voters think?

Research published in June 2016 by William A Galston of the Brookings Institution detailed the enormous differences in the opinions of White voters with college degrees and those without. The findings were based upon research done by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI).

Most Whites, with a College degree or more, have incomes above $50,000. Most working class voters have an income of less than $50,000. Most working class Whites, rate their financial circumstances as only fair or poor. Most College educated Whites, rate their financial circumstances as good or excellent. The result, is that the political and social views of working class and college educated White voters, could not be more different.

62% of working class Whites, think that America's culture and way of life has changed for the worse since the 1950s. 68% of working class Whites, believe that the American way of life needs to be protected against foreign influences. 66% of working class Whites believe that discrimination against Whites, has become as big a problem as discrimination against Blacks or other minorities. 62% of working class Whites, believe that discrimination against Christians has become as big a problem as discrimination against other groups.

This brings us to immigration. 61% of working class Whites, say that immigrants weaken the USA by taking jobs, housing and health care. 71% of working class Whites, think that immigrants mostly hurt the economy by driving down wages. 59% of working class Whites, believe the USA should make a serious attempt to deport all illegal immigrants back to their home countries. 55% of working class Whites,think the USA should build a wall along its border with Mexico.

Opinions on trade are similar. 62% of working class Whites believe that trade agreements are harmful,because they send jobs overseas and drive down wages. Finally, and most dramatically, 60% of working class White voters, believe that the USA has gotten so far off track, that the US needs a leader who is prepared to break some rules, if that is what it takes to set things right.

These findings are replicated in further research published by the PRRI in The Atlantic on 9 May 2017.

We have elsewhere discussed the work of Nobel Prize winning economist Sir Angus Deaton,on how death rates of the American White working class are rising and their social conditions are falling.

In our Economic Strategy of 5 October 2017 "Deaths of Despair", we reviewed two articles on the deterioration of the US White working class over the period since the beginning of this century. We found that following the entry of China into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, some six million US manufacturing workers lost their jobs. This resulted in a 34% decline in US manufacturing employment over the period from 2000 to 2010. The entry of China into the World Trade Organization has led US firms to shift their operations to China along with the associated US manufacturing jobs. Chinese producers then expanded into the US market which increased competition for US producers. Prior to China's entry in the WTO, the risk associated with the annual review of import tariffs,had kept manufacturing employment in the USA.

Figure 3: Regional prime male not working rates

SOURCE: Authors' calculations using Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) Current Population Survey data; published March 2018

At the very same time that manufacturing employment fell for the US working class, the death rate for the US working class began to rise. Sir Angus Deaton and Ann Case, found that deaths among non-Hispanic White Americans in midlife began to rise at the beginning of this century and continued to climb through to 2015. Increase in drug overdoses, suicides, and alcohol related liver death, particularly amongst those with a high school degree or less, were responsible for an overall increase in deaths amongst Whites. The references associated with our paper are found at the bottom of this article.

Additional research conducted for the Brookings Institution, by Ed Glaeser, Larry Somers, and Ben Austin of Harvard, and published in March 2018, have expanded upon this analysis. They note that the economic convergence, of American regions has greatly slowed, and rates of long term unemployment have been diverging. The rate of non-employment for working aged men has nearly tripled over the last 50 years, generating a terrible social problem that is disproportionally centred in the eastern parts of the American heartland.

The researchers say that many measures of wellbeing suggest,that not working is far worse than low income employment. This motivates their focus on employment rather than incomes. They divide the USA into three regions: the prosperous coasts, the western heartland and the eastern heartland, the eastern heartland is comprised of areas which became states before 1840. The coasts have high incomes, but the western heartland also benefits from natural resources and high levels of historical education.

America's social problems, including non-employment, disability, opioid-related deaths and rising mortality, are concentrated in America's eastern heartland, States from Mississippi to Michigan, and generally east of the Mississippi and not on the Atlantic coast. The income and employment gaps between the three regions are not improving, but instead seem to be worsening.

The transformations of the US economy into an information based economy, has improved the conditions of the White university educated class and worsened the conditions of the White working class. In spite of being the largest demographic group of voters, the White working class may have been neglected by the American left, perhaps because their views are not politically correct.

This group has been swooped up by Donald Trump. The American left hates what Trump says, because what he says is not politically correct. His policies are an articulation of the sentiments of the American White working class.

Trump has long had business operations in the American eastern heartland. One of his most impressive constructions is the Trump Tower on Wabash Avenue, beside the Chicago River. Trump conceived this building in 2001 as the tallest in the world. By the time it was finished in 2009, it was no longer the tallest building in the world, but it was the most impressive building in Chicago.

It is reasonable to assume, that as part of this process, he began to research the eastern heartland. It is also reasonable to assume, that the information covered again in the article by Thomas B Edsall, wasdiscovered by Trump, prior to his registration of the Ronald Reagan slogan "Make America Great Again" in July 2015.

He appears to have discovered the condition and attitudes of the White working class, and built his political platform upon them. The White working class has very different attitudes than the White college educated class.