Wary Nicholls dressed in clothes tailored by enemies

Labor’s strong negative ads then alleged a vote for Hanson was a vote for Nicholls, and vice-versa. This worked, not so much because voters were horrified at the thought – some were, though generally habitual Greens and Labor voters - but because Nicholls looked weak.

The LNP lost this election 2 years and 10 months ago when they decided to walk away from the entire Newman legacy, rather than just Newman. In doing so, they accepted Labor’s framing, and the best they could do was apologise and promise to be a responsible, more regional, old-economy version of Labor.

Newman is widely loathed, but many respect his legacy and he lost on a protest vote more than performance

Nicholls is neither loathed, nor loved. He’s that most vulnerable of political creatures, the pale man, ripe to be dressed in the clothes his enemies tailor for him.

A stronger personality with a distinct agenda might have prevailed. Lack of courage to state the obvious about relations with One Nation was read as weakness and unreliability.

The One Nation wedge is particularly difficult for the conservatives. Greens voters preference Labor 80% or better while One Nation preferences in Queensland worked against the LNP incumbents in seats like Mansfield and Mt Ommaney.

Destroying One Nation is not an option. You can seduce their voters, but if you threaten to bludgeon them they will know you weren’t listening in the first place and double down.

Neither is splitting the LNP into two separate parties. If it were, then One Nation would not have achieved its first success in 1998 - before the LNP merger.

One factor that led to a high One Nation vote was that neither Labor nor Liberal gave a compelling reason for voters to prefer them over their opponent either through their performance as government and opposition, or during the campaign.

It was risk averse and business as usual, and the LNP didn’t even run a negative campaign, until too late in the election.

Some MPs have tried to make this into an issue for Malcolm Turnbull. It is, and it isn’t. It’s not directly his fault, but it could be his problem.

These are tough, no-nonsense people in regional seats who are facing tough economic circumstances. They don’t want 100 words when 10 will do. They suspect city slickers, particularly lawyers.

They’re apprehensive of strangers, and they like to keep jobs at home, but they are also economic conservatives who value family and traditional values. And they are not overly concerned which side forms the government if they get what they want.

Turnbull needs a clear and honest answer to his relationship with them, as well as a positive and negative pitch for government, unlike his Queensland counterparts. And he needs to lift his first preference above 40%.