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The forces underpinning Trump are nothing new

By Rick Brown - posted Tuesday, 15 November 2016


In Queensland only two electorates, Brisbane (then Labor) and Ryan (Liberal) voted in favour of a republic. In Victoria Melbourne and Melbourne Ports (both then Labor) and Higgins and Kooyong (both Liberal) had the highest Yes votes.

Labor seats in Melbourne’s western suburbs recorded similar No votes to Liberal seats on Melbourne’s eastern fringe.

A similar analysis can be done of the results in New South Wales in particular.

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The votes reflected geography – not party allegiance. The further from the GPOs of state capital cities the higher the No vote was. Canberra does not require a comment.

It is interesting to compare maps of the US presidential vote on a county basis with the Brexit vote and both with the referendum vote.

They are all the same. Hillary Clinton’s vote came from New York, Washington, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Salem, Seattle and a few large cities sprinkled across the mid-West.

In the United Kingdom, the further from the London business district the higher the vote in England and Wales to leave the European Union.

Even the vote to remain in the EU in Scotland and Ireland is easily explained. The Scots and Irish thought that government from Brussels was less threatening than government from London.

The surprise is not the facts that mainstream America rose up against the elites and that Donald Trump trounced them both in the Republican primaries and subsequently the presidential elections. The surprise is that it took so long for this to happen.

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About the Author

Rick Brown is a director of CPI Strategic, which focuses on strategic advice and market analysis. He was an adviser to Howard government ministers Nick Minchin and Kevin Andrews, from 2004 to 2007.

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