Did child care help swing the election?

More detailed regression analysis and post-election polling and focus groups would shed more light on what moved voters. But it does seem that the Government’s $3 billion commitment to address the issue helped to sandbag support in its marginal seats.

Australian families will now be looking to the Government to deliver on its childcare commitments. The good news for the Government is that investing in childcare assistance largely pays for itself with as more mothers participating in the workforce means more tax revenue, as shown in recent PWC econometric modelling.

It has been eight years since the Federal Government last reviewed childcare assistance, and the Government says families must wait another two years for relief to arrive (although the Prime Minister signalled during the campaign that relief could arrive earlier). The patience of working parents in swing seats will not last forever and may run out well before the next election.

As John Black warned: “Politicians ignore them at their peril.”

Table: Average swing against the government in marginal seats

Source: Child Care Rebate by electorate, March 2015, Dept. Education; Family Tax Benefit by Electorate, March 2016, Dept. Soc. Services; Enrolment by electorate, March 2016, AEC; median % of electors claiming CCR was 9.2%, median % of electors claiming FTB A was 17.7%