Where did all the Democrats voters go?

The 2004 election marked a major shift in voter support from the Democrats, down 5 per cent in the Senate and down 4 per cent in the House. Only part of this vote can be explained by a rise in the Greens support (up 2 per cent in the House and 2.5 per cent on the Senate). This article seeks to identify where the rest of the votes went. This is significant in that if the Democrats are to recover as a political force, or if a new viable political force is to take over the Democrats' role in the political spectrum, a clear understanding of where former Democrat voters have gone and why is crucial.

Looking at the figures, it would appear that the Democrats have lost more support on the “centre-right” of the political spectrum than on the “centre-left” over the past two electoral cycles and that unless the party and its principles are repackaged in a way that provides a genuine home for true liberals, the party is destined to be squeezed on the left by the Greens into oblivion.

Measures of Left and Right support

There is little dispute that over the course of the 1990s the Democrats were repositioned as more of a left-of-centre party. Analysis of the Australian Electoral Study data of voters’ perceptions shows that the Democrats have been regarded by voters as the most centrist party, but less so in recent elections. The AES asks respondents to rank parties from 0-11 on the basis of left versus right. The Greens are consistently rated as Australia's most left-wing party, followed by the ALP, and the Democrats. The Liberals are regarded as the most right wing party, followed by the Nationals and One Nation. Taking the three most centrist ratings (4-6), the Democrats were regarded as a centre party by 57 per cent of voters in 2001, down from 64 per cent in 1998 and 68 per cent in 1996:

Perception of centrist position of parties (AES) 1996-2001 (per cent)*

Interestingly, while 34 per cent of voters allocated the Democrats to the centre of the political spectrum, only 15.5 per cent of Democrat candidates placed themselves in the centre: 77 per cent placed themselves left-of-centre and 7 per cent placed themselves right of centre. 66 per cent of Democrat candidates also described the electorate as right-of-centre, while only 33 per cent of voters described themselves as right-of-centre.

The shift in the voters' perceptions of the Democrats as a centrist party is also reflected in Democrat voters themselves in terms of the percentage allocating their second preferences in the House between the ALP and the Liberal party. The percentage of Democrat voters giving second preferences to the ALP rose from 54 per cent to 64 per cent of voters between 1996 and 2001, but fell back to 59 per cent in 2004 as many left-leaning Democrat voters switched to the Greens.

Minor party preferences to the ALP:

1998 Election

In the 1998 election, the Democrats vote fell 2.2 per cent in the Senate and 1.7 per cent in the House. The Greens vote also fell at that election (down 0.5 per cent in the Senate and 0.3 per cent in the House). Part of the Democrat vote followed Kernot to the ALP (up 1.1 per cent in the Senate and 1.3 per cent in the House) as it reconsolidated its base, and part went to the new One Nation party (around one in six One Nation voters in the House gave their second preferences to the Democrats). It is difficult to calculate how many Democrat voters returned to the Coalition in 1998, as the Coalition lost a huge chunk of support to One Nation and some to the ALP.