The 1999 Queensland Redistribution

When Queenslanders go to the polls at the next election due in the middle of 2001 they will face new and significantly redrawn electoral boundaries.

At the same time 10 members elected under the One Nation banner will be defending their seats for the first time as will the independent - Peter Wellington - whose support was crucial in providing the minority Beattie Labor Government with its parliamentary majority for its first six months of office.

Labor won office in June 1998 with 38.9% of first preference votes and an estimated 51% of the two-party preferred vote. It was not until the December 1998 by-election in the previously One Nation seat of Mulgrave that Labor was able to claim government in its own right.

The results of the 1998 election point to it having been one of the most interesting in the State's history.

To make sense of this result a two-party preferred vote has been calculated reducing all contests to ALP v National/Liberal, resulting in a vote of 51.0% to 49.0% in favour of Labor. This resulted in a notional division of seats of 50 to 39 in Labor's favour. It is against this background that the 1999 redistribution was undertaken.

The total number of seats remains at 89. However, one new seat was created on the Sunshine Coast - Glass House - and one on the Gold Coast - Gaven.

Two seats were merged in Brisbane - Chermside (ALP) and Kedron (ALP) - to create one new seat - Stafford. Two seats were merged in the west - Western Downs (NP) and Crows Nest (NP) - to create one new seat - Darling

Downs.

There are 13 new names among the 89 seats:

To analyse the impact of the redistribution two-party preferred votes have been recalculated for all 89 seats. Accordingly, all seats have been reduced to ALP - National/Liberal contests with One Nation preferences distributed between the Government and Opposition.

The abolition of old seats and the creation of new seats has resulted in a notional gain to the Coalition of one seat. Two further seats - Springwood and Whitsunday - have become notional Coalition gains, resulting in a 47 to 42 division in favour of the ALP, a net gain of three seats to the Coalition.

It is impossible to predict the outcome of the 2001 election. However, the divisions within One Nation, the resignation of 5 of its MLAs, its loss of party status and its declining electoral support make a traditional ALP - National/Liberal analysis even more relevant.