Politics and the fourth great revolution

The inherent vulnerability of digital systems (basically, if it is online it can be hacked) resulted in the leaking of information at new levels. WikiLeaks, Edward Snowden and most recently the Panama papers showed the big players - governments, corporations and the banking system - to be a bunch of liars at the very least, and certainly unable to keep secrets.

           The Occupy Movement, while genuinely expressing the dissatisfaction of growing numbers of people, was in fact indicative that times had changed. They were easily pushed aside by the old direct control system, cops with batons, and the protest ultimately came to little. In fact it was cyberspace, not real space, that they should have been occupying.

           Although it’s power is now in decline, the US still sets the scene for trends around the world. The current Presidential election has surprised everyone, with maverick billionaire Donald Trump breaking the rules. Meanwhile entrenched insider Hilary Clinton had to work much harder than anyone thought to claim the top job over the most leftist candidate in years, Bernie Sanders. The general view is that the American electorate has had enough of ‘business as usual’ politics. Even if, as seems likely, the establishment’s candidate Clinton wins, she will face an irate population on the right and a very angry population generally. With the Republicans likely to continue their scorched earth approach, there will be little peace and less constructive work in Washington. And this in turn will further weaken US leadership around the world.

The ongoing problems in the EU, Brexit, the mess in the Middle East, the coup attempt in Turkey and even voter frustration in the most stable polities, such as Australia, reflect the changing situation. Whether the major shifts will be rightwards (based in rejection of mass-immigration and possibly economic nationalism) or leftwards (basically redistribution of wealth, possibly more environmentally conscious policies), major changes in economic conditions and possibly international relations seem likely. Certainly the overall project of globalisation and cooperation on global issues like climate change face greater difficulties.

Novel forms of politics, based in digital technologies, might arise, or the new politics might settle back into recognisable party structures, albeit more fluid in form. Either way, the relative political certainties of the last century, and certainly of the last 50 years, seem to be gone.

Right now the world faces enormous problems, ranging from a bankrupt economy to global warming to runaway technology to global terrorism. The old state-based, two-party political system could not deal with such problems, so it had to go. Just how the emerging politics will work, and whether it can actually deal with the underlying challenges, is moot. One thing is for sure: we are in for a wild ride for decades, at least, to come.

The old certainties – the power of states, and of some states over others; the ultimate advantages of size; the insulating powers of great wealth – are all eroding, but whether the influence of digitised people-power can generate stable, effective means of governance and policy action is yet to be seen.