So it is unsure who will win in the House of Representatives, but neither of the two largest parties is likely to win in the Senate. Around 17% of our voters said they would vote differently in the Senate to the House, and more of these were Labor than Liberal.
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Labor voters were likely to change to Greens, the others were most interested in the Australian Liberty Alliance and One Nation. The Nick Xenophon team did OK as well, as did the more established minor parties such as Family First and the Christian Democrats. (Xenophon is mostly a South Australian phenomenon, so while he is obviously doing well down there, he doesn’t figure strongly in a national poll).
Paradoxically the Liberals’ and Greens’ changes to the senate voting procedures might result in more minor party candidates winning rather than fewer.
As voters are apparently determined to take out insurance in the senate by spreading their vote around, a perception that it has been made more difficult for them to do this might result in them trying even harder to ensure their vote doesn’t flow to a major. So we may end up with a situation where a significant number of voters preference amongst minor parties and exhaust without getting to any of the majors. This is very speculative, and I’ll be looking at results to see whether there is any truth to it, but it would mean the purpose of the changes had been defeated.
So the takeout from the research is that a debate between two constituencies sharply divided on policy will be decided in the lower house by minor party voters who will empower one or the other, but who may very well take that power away in the upper house.
The question of union power does not appear on the map or in the table, although that was the basis for calling the election. In fact it only turns up when we ask about Bill Shorten specifically.
It is possible that, after having gone to all the trouble of having a double-dissolution to be able to pass two bills establishing an Australian Building and Construction Commission, a joint sitting will not provide the numbers that a Turnbull government needs to get them through.
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No matter who wins the election, it is doubtful that they will have a particularly friendly senate. Looks like we could be in for at least another three years of stalemate, unless someone calls another double-dissolution election.
This article is based on a qualitative survey of 1317 Australians in our panel from which smaller groups have been selected to give a balanced virtual focus group.
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