Howard behind in polls and issues for 2001 campaign

Rural and Regional Issues have also been identified by some commentators as an area where Howard needs to spend some time. While there may be a big propensity in the bush for a swing, most of the marginal seats are not bush seats, so the swing would need to be huge. The Government can’t ignore the bush but its largest problem there is probably from Independents like Peter Andren (depending on pre-selection outcomes) or Tony Windsor, not the ALP or One Nation. The Liberal Party now boasts more country seats than the National Party. That is a mistake. One of the reasons for a high One Nation vote in rural areas is that the economic conservatives have no-one to vote for. The Coalition needs more Bob Katters and De-Anne Kellys if it wants to have a firm grip on rural Australia. That cannot be accommodated within the Liberal Party, but requires the National Party to distance itself.

To win the 2001 election the Liberal Party needs to establish a strong distinction between it and the Opposition on the issues. Otherwise it is in confirmed trouble. In an election where the political parties are viewed as being Tweedledum and Tweedledummer, almost everything will be reduced to entertainment values. If voters believe they are going to be screwed, they’ll vote for the party, and the leader, that will be gentler about it. Howard is not every elector’s romantic lead. Where he scores points is in doggedness and sheer determination, not flair or even likeability. These are not necessarily the characteristics that voters are comfortable with. Which takes us back to the Liberal Party convention. A strategy that relies on a kinder, gentler Howard will fail.

In summary, the entrails of the polls say Howard will lose. He has some opportunities with particular issues, but will need to exercise considerable skill to turn them to an agenda that favours him. In doing this he needs to most urgently target people in the 25-to-49-year age bracket, particularly women, living in marginal seats, which are almost entirely in urban areas. He also needs to get a majority of the potential One Nation vote, and may be helped here by vocal Aboriginal activism during the election period. At the same time he needs the National Party to become more parochial and so minimise the chances of independents in the bush.

If Howard wins this election he should go down as one of the greatest campaigners in Australian history, better even than Menzies himself.