Does Trump v Cruz foreshadow irreversible Republican divisions?

Republican women – conservative and centrist – may also defect. Their concerns are likely to be amplified if Hillary faces off against Trump in the presidential election. Attacks by Trump against Hillary, especially if they become personal or emotive, could be perceived by Republican women as sexist – even misogynistic.  

Other constituencies within the Republican base such as Latinos and the disabled may also set aside their traditional affiliations and cast their vote for the Democrats to block a Trump presidency.

Segments of the Republican voting military, appalled by Trump’s attack on Vietnam war hero and 2008 Republican presidential nominee, John McCain, may do the same.  

A defection of the sort described above, even if only amounting to 5-10 percent of the Republican base, could have a decisive impact upon the overall election result.

In what might sound the most unexpected of electoral scenarios, Clinton may gain support from anti-Trump Republicans – the so-called “Clinton Republicans” – which would cancel out Trump’s support from the blue collar “Raegan Democrats”.

Does all this sound a bit crazy? If it does, ask yourself this question: what would be the optimal Democratic strategy to take advantage of unprecedented Republican division? More than likely, the Democrats would choose to remain outside the fray and let the Republican candidates destroy themselves. Is this what we are witnessing? To a considerable extent, yes. The Republican candidates receive more television and print coverage than the Democrats, and the Republican primary campaigns have become more about insults and sensationalism than substantive policy debate and presidentialism. This explains why prominent New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd referred to Trump as the “Khardashian” of politics.

Although the Republican presidential candidates are currently dominating the press cycle and becoming household names, this may not deliver the Presidency in November. Entertainment and electability are two different things. Rather, the more overexposed traditional Republicans are to Trump and the more irreversible the divisions between Trump and Cruz become, the greater the chance for a Democratic presidential victory assisted by a de-energised and defecting Republican base. It is just possible that on November 8 2016, “Clinton Republicans” could quietly help to make Hillary Clinton the 45th President of the United States.