Does Trump v Cruz foreshadow irreversible Republican divisions?

Division, as they say in politics, is the kiss of death. Yet, in the wake of last week’s primaries, the Republican Party is unquestionably divided between two candidates: Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. During the middle stages of the primary season, this is perhaps expected. What is not so expected, and is increasingly disturbing Republican strategists, is that these divisions appear to be intensifying, with the likelihood of becoming irreversible by the time of the 2016 presidential election.

Most notably, the negative rhetoric of Trump’s Republican opponents has increased. Former 2012 Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, has labelled Trump a “phoney” and “fraud”, suggesting that “his promises are as worthless as a degree from Trump University.” Marco Rubio, who recently suspended his 2016 Republican campaign, has branded Trump a “con-artist.” The former Republican Texas Governor, Rick Perry, has stated that Trump “offers a barking carnival act that can be best described as ‘Trumpism’: a toxic mix of demagoguery, mean-spiritedness and nonsense that will lead the Republican Party to perdition if pursued.” Cruz has characterized Trump as “a fragile soul”, “afraid” of Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly, and intimated that Trump is neither a libertarian nor conservative but instead committed to “New York values” – a veiled proxy for liberal Democratic leanings.

For his part, Trump has levelled his own insults, referring to Romney as a “joke artist”, Rubio as “little Marco”, Perry as requiring “an IQ test” and Cruz as “lyin’ Ted.”

Trump has threatened on social media to “spill the beans” on Cruz’s wife Heidi. This was followed by posts alluding to Heidi’s physical appearance. Cruz angrily responded that Trump was a “snivelling coward” and should “leave Heidi the hell alone.”    

The intensifying attacks by Trump and Cruz have strayed into their respective voting blocs. In an interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network, Cruz characterised Trump supporters as “low information voters” and “not that engaged”. 

By way of comparison, the Democratic contest is comparatively tame as Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders fight a contest of differently accented political visions. Aside from the odd rhetorical skirmish, the acrimony permeating the Republican candidates is nowhere to be seen. 

With all the infighting between Trump, Cruz and other prominent Republicans, it is difficult to imagine how the party will coalesce around Trump, the widely expected Republican presidential nominee, in the latter half of 2016. 

Trump’s centrism will undoubtedly alienate Republican conservatives who recoil at his “popularist” politics and past liberal flirtations, including his former Democratic voter registration and donations.  

Moreover, Trump has made alienating comments which could prove more important to traditional Republicans than their political affiliation. Republican women, especially those who are conservative and Cruz supporters, may be less than enthusiastic about Trump in light of comments about Rosie O’Donnell, Sarah Jessica Parker, Megyn Kelly (and others), not to mention social media tweets involving Heidi Cruz.

Similar sentiments could emerge with other Republican constituencies such as African Americans, Latinos or the disabled.

In short, it is likely that come November, substantial segments of the Republican base will be de-energised to support Trump if he is the eventual Presidential nominee. This could lead to a sizable Republican “no show” at the polls.

Some traditional Republicans may even defect, voting for the projected Democratic presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton. Such defection would be most probable with those Republicans – conservative or centrist – who fear, very genuinely, Trump’s ascension to Commander-in-Chief. Is Trump really fit to have his finger on the button, they may ask? Trump may yet prove particularly vulnerable to these fears given his emotive language, bellicose persona and perceived impulsiveness.   

Republican women – conservative and centrist – may also defect. Their concerns are likely to be amplified if Hillary faces off against Trump in the presidential election. Attacks by Trump against Hillary, especially if they become personal or emotive, could be perceived by Republican women as sexist – even misogynistic.  

Other constituencies within the Republican base such as Latinos and the disabled may also set aside their traditional affiliations and cast their vote for the Democrats to block a Trump presidency.

Segments of the Republican voting military, appalled by Trump’s attack on Vietnam war hero and 2008 Republican presidential nominee, John McCain, may do the same.  

A defection of the sort described above, even if only amounting to 5-10 percent of the Republican base, could have a decisive impact upon the overall election result.

In what might sound the most unexpected of electoral scenarios, Clinton may gain support from anti-Trump Republicans – the so-called “Clinton Republicans” – which would cancel out Trump’s support from the blue collar “Raegan Democrats”.

Does all this sound a bit crazy? If it does, ask yourself this question: what would be the optimal Democratic strategy to take advantage of unprecedented Republican division? More than likely, the Democrats would choose to remain outside the fray and let the Republican candidates destroy themselves. Is this what we are witnessing? To a considerable extent, yes. The Republican candidates receive more television and print coverage than the Democrats, and the Republican primary campaigns have become more about insults and sensationalism than substantive policy debate and presidentialism. This explains why prominent New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd referred to Trump as the “Khardashian” of politics.

Although the Republican presidential candidates are currently dominating the press cycle and becoming household names, this may not deliver the Presidency in November. Entertainment and electability are two different things. Rather, the more overexposed traditional Republicans are to Trump and the more irreversible the divisions between Trump and Cruz become, the greater the chance for a Democratic presidential victory assisted by a de-energised and defecting Republican base. It is just possible that on November 8 2016, “Clinton Republicans” could quietly help to make Hillary Clinton the 45th President of the United States.