The shrinking Malcolm Turnbull

We must now have a budget, so the tax question must be settled, at least temporarily. An election in July allows three years before the next one so spending cuts and further tax changes can happen over the next year or so. A mini-budget in response to another global financial crisis is not out of the question.

That leaves a seven week election campaign, which will require a lot more than gushing about innovation and implied denigration of wage earners, retirees and welfare recipients.

A lot of Ministers are doing good work, with Sussan Ley in Health showing the way. Within a broader picture of competent government, and the nerve to stay positive, even to the extent of saving union members from their 'leaders', could still deliver a huge victory. Turnbull needs a plan to govern for the benefit of the majority of Australians, not for the approval of a tiny minority of very secure, highly superannuated journalists and other powerful people who have lost touch with the concerns of the great majority.

John Howard ran a dog of a government until about a year before his first re-election. It was only grabbing the GST and looking like he was doing something that saved him. It showed that decisive action can be rewarded quickly. Mindless waffling is not. Turnbull starts from a higher base and can quickly win back ascendency but it will require serious and disciplined work.