The illegal boat arrival vacuum

The current tax debate has failed for quite simple reasons. PM Turnbull hyped it up in the lead up to an election, which would have made sense if there was a boom going on and surplus money to be distributed. But given we are in a tough economic transition, have a considerable debt and ongoing budget deficits the real challenges are to increase tax or cut spending. Deciding to pretend this is not true is either stupid or delusional.

The initial assessments of benefits from raising the GST were probably based on numbers from when the tax was introduced. But then they updated the figures and suddenly realised the population has aged and we are in a spending slowdown so the benefits, and the cost of compensation, are radically different. If this is true its a real amateur hour performance from Treasury.

The Greens can advocate serious tax changes without too much fear of losing votes. Most of their voters are young so they could push cuts to negative gearing and admit the truth that this will drive house prices down a little, but claim that as a benefit as housing affordability for young people improved.

Both the ALP and the Government are playing with cuts in this area but can not summon up the courage to admit the obvious, that making houses more affordable means dropping prices. And that this does not matter to most people because if they get less when selling their house they also can buy their next one cheaper. The only real losers are the people inheriting houses when people die. So negative gearing can be seen as a taxpayer funded inheritance subsidy. The Greens could jump right in.

With these and other policies on energy, science and drugs for example, The Greens could make quite a dent in ALP and even Coalition votes. But only if they wind back the huge voter turn-off that goes with all the righteous outrage concerning illegal boat arrivals. The Government's great work in stopping the boats and steadily winding back the numbers in detention has offered them that option.

The choice facing The Greens is huge. At the coming poll they will either make the leap to become a party aiming for government with a comprehensive big picture to offer the nation, and particularly young people, or they will remain a party of protest, the representatives of the outraged 10%, and go no further. If they do succeed Di Natale will owe a debt to Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison.