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Lifting the sanctions will not end Iran’s revolutionary zeal

By Alon Ben-Meir - posted Thursday, 28 January 2016


The Obama administration, which championed the Iran deal, speculates that once the sanctions are lifted, Iran might become a prominent and constructive player on the global stage. This in my view is farfetched; even though Iran aspires to become such a power, its revolutionary and religious zeal will trump even its lofty aspirations. For this reason, the US, along with its allies, must stand fast in dealing with Iran by:

Taking whatever action necessary, including military, if Iran is caught cheating on the nuclear deal; enforcing UNSC resolutions that forbid Iran from research and development of ballistic missiles; imposing tough new sanctions (as President Obama has just done, albeit more forcefully and immediately); tracking Iran's subversive activities and making it clear that there will be serious consequences should it continue to support extremist groups and terrorists; requiring Iran, through quiet diplomacy, to end its public acrimony against Israel; and pressuring Iran to help mitigate the Sunni-Shiite conflict, knowing full well that this is not a conflict that either side can win.

Regardless of how Iran pursues its foreign policy objectives, the greatest danger the regime faces is from within. Whereas the government will spend a considerable amount of money to improve the economic conditions of ordinary Iranians, that in and of itself will not stifle the public's cry for freedom of speech and press, respect for human rights, and an end to draconian laws.

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Indeed, the lifting of the sanctions will encourage the public, especially the young, to voice their discontent as they will no longer feel the need to rally behind their government, which was battling the West over the sanctions. This is the Achilles' heel of the regime. The 2009 Green Revolution will not be an aberration; a new uprising may now become inevitable. I believe the question will be only when.

Sadly, with or without sanctions, as long as the mullahs are in power, they are unlikely to change their messianic mission, which will remain a source of major concern to Iran's enemies and is the recipe for regional destabilization and violent conflicts.

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About the Author

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

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