Wind storm of green energy is a flat calm

He says it is commonly believed in the industry that the REC overhang will persist until about 2017. But as it takes about two years to get a wind farm from proposal to power generating stage, the distributors should now be considering investment in the industry. That increase in investment has yet to be seen, which is disappointing considering Bray also estimates that investment in large-scale renewable energy fell by 88 per cent in 2014.

He attributes that collapse to the 2013 election of the Tony Abbott government. When power companies realised Abbott would win, and that he had no time for renewable energy, they stopped signing power purchasing agreements.

Steve Garner, general manager of Keppel Prince in Portland, Victoria, agrees that very little is happening in the wind sector, one of the markets that his engineering company services by building wind towers.

Keppel was forced to lay off 85 workers last year, and a promise by the Daniel Andrews' Victorian state government to buy 100 megawatts-worth of RECs from new-build projects in the state has not reignited business.

The only order the company has received has come through a wind farm being built to meet the ACT government target, Garner says.

Subdued development

A spokesman for the Clean Energy Council agrees that wind farm development has been subdued with perhaps 10 to 20 wind projects at the planning stage. However, the council has heard anecdotally from state planning departments that there has been an increase in companies seeking planning amendments to their projects, to take advantage of the bipartisan RET deal.

Of a list of projects sent to this writer by the CEC, the most impressive is the $450 million Ararat Wind Farm, with an installed capacity of 240 megawatts under construction in Victoria. However, in evaluating any contribution wind may make, it is important to remember its capacity factor (average output) is typically one-third of installed capacity. So the 240 MWs is an effective 80 MWs.

(Theoretical capacity factors for conventional plants are typically above 90 per cent, but gas plants in particularly are rarely run to that level while part of a network. They may have an average output of 70 per cent but that does not mean wind has a capacity factor half that of gas plants – they cannot be compared.)

Although the renewable energy market remains surprisingly subdued, it includes innovative projects such as that of the Kennedy Park project mentioned at the start of this article, organised by Windlab and joint venture partner Japanese company Eurus Energy.

To be located on farmland 290 kilometres south-west of Townsville, the 40 MW of generating capacity from wind towers is expected to complement the 40 MWs worth of PV panels, to create a project that will generate power through most of a 24-hour cycle.

Windlab's Price says the wind usually blows at night and the site gets strong, consistent sunlight during the day.