New Dick Smith party could be a winner

Malcolm Turnbull's success as PM is due to his personification of the optimistic, calm and prosperous image that people expect of the Liberal Party. It has been amusing to see gay marriage and other 'rights' issues that thrived under Abbott fade away under Turnbull. They were basically ways to punish Abbott for telling the wrong stories.

The Greens are trying to move beyond self-righteous moralising to develop a narrative about sensible transition to a future based on new energy sources but they have not succeeded yet. Their great weakness is population policy. They still appear to think refugee and high migration policy is core to their big picture but it is actually contrary to it. Continued population growth defeats any attempts to reduce greenhouse emissions and to alleviate many other environmental concerns. The Greens used to own the word 'sustainable' but not any more.

The ALP is lost in the wilderness because it, and most of the voters, can no longer recognise any big picture. The unions are a problem, public health, education and broadcasting are no longer defended, if there are foreign or defence policies they remain well hidden.

Then there are the policy specifics like the incredible huge rise in tobacco tax. As Health Minister Ley has said, that would hit a lot of people who have big problems with addiction and other mental health issues that make smoking the least of their worries. And the tax hits people who should be natural ALP voters but now almost certainly won't be.

The ALP could announce a new policy every day from now to the election and it will make no difference at all unless they can magically find a new meta-narrative that gives voters confidence they know what will happen if they vote Labor.

In this highly volatile political environment a new party proclaiming sustainability built on a stable population could be successful if was adequately capitalised, had a charismatic leader and a coherent meta-narrative.

Without those three basic requirements it will be just a few rich guys dipping their toes in the water.