From left field: polls apart - quantitative surveys and predictions 2001

In these seats, there is a significant concentration of the middle-income, middle-mortgage demographic groups Labor lost at the 2001 poll. That’s the battleground.

At the same time as losing these groups, Labor’s traditional base among the industrial skilled and unskilled blue-collar groups was being undermined by the Coalition (and some would argue by Labor’s own policies in government). About the only segments in which Labor made gains were among the well-educated professional, managerial and para-professional groups. (Incidentally, these are the pro-republic voters from the referendum.)

While more analysis is still needed, these demographic trends appear to be not ephemeral but structural. The progressive decline in Labor’s primary and two-party-preferred vote among the skilled and unskilled blue-collar groups go back to 1990 (at least), and despite making up some ground among these groups in 1998, the longer-term pattern appears to have reasserted itself in 2001.

When he formed the Liberal Party some 50-odd years ago, Menzies talked of the ‘forgotten people’. Labor would do well to heed this message in its efforts to broaden its base and win the hearts and minds (and hip pockets) of mortgage-paying Australians.