It feels like election time

Unlike previous triggers for double dissolutions this one could actually play a prominent role in the election. It sets out to make union officials subject to the same laws and penalties as company directors in the running of their organisations. Given the revelations at the Royal Commission this seems like common sense to most people and would put the heat on the ALP regarding it's union dependency. In the hands of Abbott this may have come across as partisan but Turnbull is quite capable of making it seem completely reasonable.

Tony Abbott has been making a solid contribution to Turnbull's success by doing the rounds of talkback radio to remind us all how much we owe Malcolm for getting rid of him. But soon the shockjocks will stop inviting him as it all get too embarrassing even for the faithful. Then we will start to forget.

The ALP can be relied on to produce a weak campaign, not least because they will be short of funds. Then after they get thrashed they can either start taking life seriously again or disappear and leave the field for something new.

There are at least four good reasons why the government would not go to the polls quickly, but they are not conclusive.

There is a view that voters don't like a rush to the polls by a new PM, and Hawke's disappointing result in 1984 is often cited as evidence. But we live in very different times, and the gratitude factor is still big.

If Turnbull called an election in the next six months the new senate would sit immediately after the election, which would be a big plus, but the next senate election would have to be held before July 2017. To avoid having a senate election separate to the general election the government would have to go to a full election after only about eighteen months in office. If the Government had done a good job it would survive, and the ALP would be in a dire financial situation and probably still fighting about its future direction.

In a double D the senate quotas become 7.7%, down from 14.3% (rounded) in a half-senate election. This is generally believed to favour minor parties but wether that would happen in this case is a matter for serious analysis. From the governments point of view the only issue is how close they would go to getting a majority. A vote of 46% in any state would see them get half the seats.

If they bring in the sensible electoral reform of effectively cutting out preferences in the senate vote, giving seats to those with the biggest partial quotas instead of those with the biggest preference flows (that were not intended by voters) then half the seats could be won with less than 45%. The Greens would be big winners with this legislation and seem set to support it if the government introduces it.

Nick Xenophon would probably get two seats in South Australia.

The Government would do well in electing senators among the first six to be elected (who would get six year terms while the rest got three year terms) so it would be well placed at the subsequent election to move to a majority

Another problem that should probably be overcome before an election is called is the replacement of the Liberal Party National Director. It will be revealing to see how quickly that happens.

The government has already achieved a lot of good electoral work in winning back voters Abbott lost. So lets get on with it.