Battery power

Competitive emphasis will shift to efficiency of solar cells used by the power station since use of the most efficient cells generates the most electricity. Coal-fired power stations feeding a grid become less competitive not only because solar power stations can be sighted locally but because they cost far less to construct and their fuel is free. Capital cost may fall further as photo-voltaic efficiency improves. Moreover, solar power stations are easily and more cheaply scalable and able to meet increasing, or contracting, demand.

The overall effect of these changes is that industry and residential properties can be supplied with a reliable source of electricity without the need for a grid or connection to it, irrespective of size or location of the properties. This provides enormous flexibility and reduces the cost of establishing business operations in the most appropriate locations, rather than locations where grid supply is available.

Electric vehicles

The future is electric but an interim measure has been the development of hybrid vehicles. They are propelled solely by electric motors supplied with energy from (1) batteries which are recharged from the mains (2) by a small on-board petrol motor driving a generator and (3) by engineering enabling the vehicles kinetic energy to charge the battery. Some hybrids use less than 2 litres/100km, with very low emissions.

The energy required to propel a purely electric vehicle must either be generated on-board or contained in pre-charged batteries which can either be rapidly re-charged or exchanged for fully charged ones. Electricity to keep batteries fully charged and propel the vehicle can be provided by a hydrogen fuel-cell.

The fuel-cell is a clean, efficient generator of electricity but is dependent on new infrastructure including increased production of hydrogen and distribution to a yet to be created refueling station. Hydrogen can be produced in the quantity required for fuelling electric vehicles by hydrolysis using solar generated electricity. At present, fuel-cell/electric vehicles have a range of 500-600 km before needing to be refueled.

However, hydrogen seems unlikely to supplement rapidly rechargeable batteries as the source of energy required for electric propulsion. Porsche has unveiled its 'Mission E' electric sports car with a range of 500 km on a single charge, powered by a battery pack which can be 80% recharged in 15 minutes. This provides clear evidence of the innovative and competitive nature of on-going battery development characterised by increasing density and rapidly reduced time for recharge.

Electric vehicles only become an affordable reality when their price is competitive with fossil fuelled vehicles. The most expensive component of an electric vehicle is the power unit, at present a lithium-ion battery pack and, to be competitive with fossil-fuelled vehicles, these have to be able to store electricity at $300/KWh. A 2010 analysis suggested that this would not be achieved until 2020. Present indications from Tesla and Porsche is that $300/KWh has already been achieved and will be significantly improved on by 2020.

By 2020 it is likely that electric cars will be comparably priced with fossil-fuelled vehicles and be the vehicle of choice. Mufflers, exhaust pipes, radiator and the internal combustion engine will then be rapidly consigned to history and replaced by the battery pack, continuous gear, and an electric motor on each axle or wheel.

Other Uses

Development of a durable, high density, rapid recharge battery which is now occurring, will result in use of solar energy for recharging and have a profound influence on the production and use of electric appliances powered by them. Hand tools, even the humble screwdriver, will be replaced by powered tools. Leaf-blowers, lawnmowers, pool and other domestic cleaners, forklifts, cranes, even toys, will be powered by batteries. Increased battery power will stimulate new innovations, increase productivity, reduce workload and extend what is possible.

Electrical appliances which we take for granted now such as laptops, tablets and mobile phones are likely to be equipped with batteries enabling their use for a week or more before rapid recharge is necessary. Electrically powered equipment, monitoring their performance and other facilities now manually operated in mining and agriculture will be battery operated and developed with capacity for remote control, as efficient solar generation and storage of electricity develops.

We are at the start of a market driven revolution which will sweep all before it, over-riding government ideology and policies. It will transform transport and have profound effects on the way we generate, save and use electricity. Best of all, the fuel source is free and globally available.