Managing Australia's population targets requires all of government

Informed discussion of population issues is vital to the development of policies that will enable us to best manage our future. However, discussion needs to move beyond simply barracking for a particular population target.

Before we start picking targets, even if that were appropriate, we need to focus on developing a better understanding of the impact of population change on many critical public policy areas. The lessons that Peter McDonald has taught us about what is demographically feasible and what is not are also important to an informed discussion.

The Government has invested very significant resources into research and policy development into a range of policy areas impacted by population change. For example, in addition to the extensive research into these issues that I have commissioned, my colleague the Minister for Family and Community Services has commissioned significant research into the impact of an ageing population on the social security budget as well as into the causes of fertility decline.

The Minister for Health has developed a National Strategy for an Ageing Australia which is a framework to address the economic and social impact of ageing.

The Minister for the Environment will be issuing the next State of the Environment report which will complement the work that the CSIRO is currently doing on the relationship between population and the environment.

In accordance with the Charter of Budget Honesty, the Treasurer will be producing the Intergenerational Report which will assess the long-term fiscal sustainability of current government policies, taking into account, among other things, the financial implications of demographic change over the next 40 years.

It is this type of research and policy development that will continue to guide the Government's approach to population issues.

Australia's Population Directions Australia's population of about 19 million is currently growing at around 1.2 per cent per annum - this is one of the highest population growth rates in the developed world. A critical part of this growth is that in 2001-02, the Government will deliver the largest migration program in a decade and the largest and most rigorously tested skill stream on record. In addition, long term movements to Australia have hit record levels and for the first time contribute more to net overseas migration than permanent movement.

Based on sound demographic research and reasonable assumptions regarding current trends in immigration, fertility and life expectancy, Australia may reach a population of around 25 million by mid-century. However, I do not regard this as a population target.

Two major population inquiries in the past decade have found that an optimum population target is not appropriate for Australia. Both inquiries also highlighted the very limited range of policy levers available to governments to influence population size and distribution.

In a liberal-democratic society such as ours, with an open trading economy, a high level of people movements (both internal and external) and a focus on free enterprise and individual choice, we have very limited capacity to ensure any particular population target is actually delivered. We know that demographic forces are slow but inexorable and very difficult to divert.

It is against this background that the three population scenarios being considered by this population summit should be examined. While 25 million is about where Australia's population may reach by mid-century based on current trends and assumptions, the other two scenarios require zero net overseas migration (and low fertility) or a possible tripling of net overseas migration (and a major increase in fertility).

Some Important Population Questions

In order to assist discussion of these alternative scenarios, let me put forward a few relevant policy questions:

• What kind of policies impacting on fertility, mortality and net overseas migration would be needed to deliver these population scenarios? It is not enough simply to nominate 'assumptions' regarding these variables in order to reach a selected population target. We need to examine whether the policies needed to achieve these 'assumptions' are feasible/workable. What would be the social and economic implications of these policies? Would these policies be acceptable to most Australians?

• Under which of these scenarios would the living standards of all Australians most likely be improved? One measure of this may be changes in per capita GDP. Also relevant would be the impact on income distribution and poverty as well as on the sustainability of government finances. The nature of the immigration policy we operate is likely to be crucial to this.

• Finally, what would be the implications of each scenario on the environment and infrastructure? What policies would be needed to manage these implications?

Given that at least a third of our immigration intake settles in Sydney and given Premier Carr's concerns with this, what would be the implications of a major change in immigration policy for Australia's largest city?

The Government's Approach to Population

Quality research and policy development underpin the Government's approach to population issues. While the Government does not consider it appropriate to set population targets, our policy priorities for population include a need to continue to:

• pursue family friendly policies that will help to minimise further falls in fertility;
• encourage more older workers to remain in the workforce longer;
• enhance our skilled migration intake and encourage a better dispersal of this; and
• assist improved environmental management practices and behaviour.

Government policies towards population and its implications for all aspects of Australian society should continue to be the subject of examination and informed discussion. I will continue to encourage and assist this.