What happened in the Victorian election

Factor Number 4 – The Liberal Party

There is something about the Liberal brand these days – it just isn’t selling like it used to. Only at a federal level is the Liberal Party dominant, but this is only a recent, and possibly ephemeral, development. Before the Tampa hove over the horizon, John Howard was doing very poorly in the polls. In fact, they were showing something approaching a 10 per cent swing against the party at some stages.

In that sense, the Victorian election result may not be that far away from the probable result of a generic federal election, sans the refugee issue. This leads to the question: What might happen to the Federal Liberals now that Howard’s policy on boat people appears to have been so successful and the flow of fresh arrivals has been cut off?

The problem for the Liberal Party is that it no longer symbolically or socially identifies with the broad sweep of Australians. Nowhere is this more obvious than in Victoria. There was a view that Bracks would have trouble winning seats because the state is traditionally Liberal. Well, since 1993 at a Federal level it has voted Labor. It was the strongest state for the Republic and the state where One Nation gained least purchase. When I visit Melbourne from Brisbane I feel like I am in another country, not because of its more settled and European culture, but because it has a left-of-centre air.

Perhaps Victoria has not moved. Perhaps the rest of us have. Certainly the Liberal Party has. Malcolm Fraser is now regarded by many as left-wing; and the philosophical heirs of Sydney free-traders like George Reid, who were vanquished by the Victorian Deakinite protectionists, today run the Liberal Party. This handicap can be overcome but generally only by Labor catastrophes opening the door to company doctor-style Liberal administrations, or by the Liberals finding leaders who can overcome the brand issue. (Which doesn’t mean that they have to be charismatic, but that is another essay). Interestingly, the Michael Krogers of this world who now run the Vic Libs, are followers of Reid rather than Deakin.

Which leads to…

Factor Number 5 – Robert Doyle and Dennis Napthine

Napthine wasn’t going to win the election, but does anyone seriously believe that he could have done any worse than Robert Doyle? In fact, as a local member, he appears to have done better. According to Adam Carr’s Psephos site, Napthine experienced a swing against him on a two-party preferred basis of 4.3 per cent while Doyle had a swing against of 5.9 per cent.

The Liberals need to realise that replacing leaders at the last moment, as they did this time in Victoria, and previously in New South Wales, is rarely going to do any more than tarnish the incoming leader with an election loss. Doyle was a virtual unknown who brought no personal capital to the job, except for the ability to be more aggressive than his predecessor. This aggression was on display in his concession speech. It was short, he took the opportunity to take a shot at Napthine’s leadership, and I don’t recall him thanking too many people. It was so bad that commentator John Faine called it “blonde”. And aggression is not necessarily the trait that Australians are responding to at the moment in their leaders.

One of the Liberals’ justifications for their loss is that in these uncertain times people are sticking with the devil they know rather than changing governments. This argument ispremised on a presumed collective reaction to 9/11 and the Bali Bombing. The only problem is that people aren’t feeling uncertain in that way at the moment. Witness both the Yellow Pages Business Index, and the Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment which both show robust consumer confidence, as do other indicators, like the demand for new housing.

What On Line Opinion’s federal focus group research showed was that after 9/11 Australians felt a sense of shared community with the world at the same time that they felt a need to come closer together. We have an electorate that is looking for an inclusive, less materialist government. Napthine may well have been more in tune with that mood than Doyle.

Factor Number 6 – Steve Bracks

Bracks was probably more in tune with the electorate than either of the potential Liberal leaders. That was his main strength. He was able to run with the popular Kennett initiatives, at the same time as he spent most of the dividend that was available from the unpopular Kennett reforms - hiring more teachers, nurses and police. He came across as genuine and a nice guy at the same time as he banished the guilty party image. Being a “nice guy” might seem easy, but politics rewards people who don’t take risks. In politics, being a “nice guy” is the province of the brave. Just as Neville Wran, in his own way, banished the spectre of the cardigan wearing union operatives making Labor acceptable in government, Bracks has exorcised Cain and Kirner.

Conclusion

After the 1978 Wranslide it took the Liberals 10 years to recover in NSW. It was another 15 years after Bjelke-Petersen’s ’74 win until Labor came back, and then only off the back of the Fitzgerald Inquiry which revealed entrenched corruption to the highest levels in the state. History would suggest that it could be just as long before the Liberals come back in Victoria. It will certainly be longer if they follow the Kroger template for constructing candidates.

For Howard it should be a reminder of his own mortality. The tide is generally flowing against him, no matter how secure he looks at the moment. Perhaps the hardest lesson is there for Costello. Some of the same people who were responsible for the Victorian debacle have also spread their influence into other states, like Queensland, where they have proved equally inept at campaigns, and destructive of party organisations.

The Liberal Party is a federation of state-based organisations. Unless these individual principalities hold together, there is no federal organisation. With Labor now decisively in charge almost everywhere, the Federal Liberal Party is at risk whenever Howard goes. If he wants to be a long-term Prime Minister, Costello needs some new friends.