Global civilisation in the the next three decades

This scenario of enhanced efficiency through better technology is basically what the conventional neo-liberal response amounts to. But there is an assumption here that we can maintain control over these ever more capable techno-systems. In actuality there is growing concern that the scale, complexity and sophistication of these systems will outstrip our capability to understand and control them.

Scenario 3: New and better ideas.

In material terms we are really under the hammer as the energy and waste equation is very serious indeed and developing new technology demands a functioning economy (or a big war). But in terms of new ideas we have a real chance. Not only do we have a better educated population than ever before, they are in better contact with each than ever thanks to digital technology.

The current situation is ideal for a sustained debate about how to best run a global civilisation and how to generate the institutions and other processes necessary to do this. Unfortunately, our major institutional arrangements – politics, mass media, tertiary education, corporate business – are failing in this role. We desperately need new forms of discourse that open up room for debate and effective policy making.

The future that actually happens won't be exactly like any of the scenarios above, but how well things work out will in large part depend on how well we faced up to some hard facts and harder choices.