Contrails or 'Chemtrails' - what is going on in our skies?

It is 8AM and the skies over Adelaide are covered in chemtrails…..

This post appeared on Facebook. It seems thousands of people, possibly millions, now believe that aircraft are deliberately spraying them with chemicals on a daily basis. For people involved with aviation it seems so ludicrous that no rebuttal is necessary.

So what is really going on?

Hardcore conspiracy theorists will always believe that anyone who doesn't validate their position is part of the conspiracy. There's no entry point into that world view. However there are a great many people who see vast plumes criss crossing our skies and have started to wonder if perhaps there isn't something behind all of those insistent posts on Facebook. This article is intended for them.

From what I can tell the chemtrails conspiracy theory has its roots in the 90's when the US Air Force conducted some contingency planning surrounding the hypothetical weaponisation of weather. Being a progressive organisation with a war fighting charter, they regularly conduct all sorts of hypothetical scenarios. Recently there was mainstream news coverage of one such hypothetical which modelled an alien invasion. Conspiracy theorists had fun with it, but there was no actual invasion. A scenario like this tests the organisation's ability to respond to unknown threats and technologies. In short these hypotheticals keep them 'sharp'.

Added to this is the work that has been done on 'geo-engineering'. There's no shortage of scientists who argue that we could help mitigate the effects of global warming, by creating artificial cloud barriers. Once again hypothesising about something doesn't make it a reality and in order to have any chance of working it would need to cover vast areas, let alone the theorists who suggest it would make matters worse. Another variant of the chemtrails idea is that the population is being sprayed with chemicals for various reasons.

Most people understand that clouds are masses of condensation created by the temperature differences that occur with different altitudes and air pressures. When aircraft move through the air they essentially create streams of 'cloud' – condensation trails, usually abbreviated to 'contrails'. Their formation is most often triggered by the water vapor in the exhaust of aircraft engines.

They can however also be created by changes in air pressure across other areas of the wing surface. As a wing generates lift a vortex if formed at each wingtip, and sometimes at wing flaps. Reductions in pressure and temperature can cause condensation, which in turn can also become visible, especially at landing and takeoff. Aircraft have always done this and depending on the conditions these contrails may be more or less noticeable, and may hang around or disperse.

What has changed markedly in recent years is the power of jet engines and the sheer quantity of aircraft in the skies. The former creates far more pronounced contrails whilst the latter means you will see a lot more of them.

A key element to the chemtrails conspiracy theory is that someone must be getting a lot of aircraft up in the sky to do all this 'spraying' and that these aircraft must be suitably equipped for the job. Putting aside which organisation may be fiendish and cashed up enough to do this for a moment, the reality is that what happens in the skies is tightly controlled, especially over urban areas where there is a lot of activity.

Air Traffic Controllers monitor every aircraft, and there is a virtual army of engineers, maintainers and various other personnel that are constantly going over every aircraft. So if they are operating in normal airspace, every single one of those people need to be in on the conspiracy.

Beyond that however is the vast legion of 'plane spotters' who document every aircraft and every movement. You can never underestimate these people and they have been known to break major aviation stories. Every aircraft and every air movement attracts their attention. If there was even a single aircraft whose schedule and purpose was not well documented you can be sure that these types would be onto it. So far there hasn't been a single 'Edward Snowden'. Not one former Air Traffic Controller or other aviation experienced person has come forward with verifiable evidence. If something this horrendous was going on you'd expect someone would have a pang of conscience, or be sufficiently disgruntled to blow the whistle, and provide documentary evidence. What the Snowden episode has shown is how very hard it is to keep anything secret these days. All it takes is a memory stick sent to Wikileaks.

As it is you can look at a contrail in the sky and match it to scheduled flights undertaken by well scrutinised aircraft. The criss crossing effect is due to different flight paths at different altitudes. For example to avoid an aircraft travelling north potentially hitting one travelling west, they are routed at different altitudes. From the ground these altitude differences are difficult to discern. And from time to time these flightpaths are changed, often to minimise impacts upon those below. So you might have several days of quite heavy activity, followed by less and so on.

This is the first big hurdle for the chemtrails conspiracy theory – how do you get lots of specially equipped aircraft up in the air without attracting any attention from anyone involved in aviation? Since that would be undeniably next to impossible, the claim is often made that commercial aircraft are being used. But that in turn would mean that you would have to somehow hide the chemtrails apparatus from maintainers and engineers; you'd need to be able to hide the chemical storage tanks on commercial airports, and you'd need every last pilot in on it. For example they would have to compensate for the extra weight and so forth. People who work at commercial airports will tell you that it just isn't possible. Pilots are notoriously individualistic, and can be difficult enough to manage. Maintainers and engineers would have to be involved in maintaining and concealing the chemtrails apparatus, which would be next to impossible during 'heavy maintenance'. 'Plane spotters' who literally spend days at commercial airports have never once spotted activity or infrastructure that doesn't correspond to known use. Walk up and down as many commercial aircraft wings as you like and won't see any nozzles.

If the intention of chemtrails was 'geo engineering' then you require huge coverage for it to make any sense. Once you get above and beyond a major urban centre you get a sense of how very big the sky is. You might see lots of criss crossed contrails over Melbourne or Sydney, but thereafter it is open skies. If the intention is to spray some kind of chemical upon the population then this is not the best delivery mechanism. Adding it to the water supply would seemingly be a far better option in terms of controlling dose and ease of concealment, to cite just one possibility. For the reasons I have outlined an airborne delivery mechanism is rife with issues and would pose a big risk of being brought to public attention.

In the course of writing this article I have looked at countless pictures and videos of perfectly normal aviation phenomena. I have been sent pictures of the interior of aircraft outfitted for the transportation of various liquids – pictures which you can see in countless public domain publications. I have even corresponded with a former US Air Force member who has some notoriety for making claims about chemtrails. This individual seems to like being a conspiracy theory 'pop star' but never provides any actual evidence. For the chemtrails conspiracy to have any traction the first step would be to explain how aircraft outfitted for this purpose manage to get into public air space, and no one in the aviation industry ever notices, let alone the ever present 'plane spotters'.

Having said that there is no argument that aircraft pollute. You don't move that amount of steel through the sky without burning a LOT of fuel, and this does create emissions that are not healthy for humans. An article in 'Aviator' entitled 'Planes and pollution' spells out the problems. Firstly a UN report has found that aircraft are responsible for over half the emissions created by transportation, emitting 'huge amounts of carbon dioxide……..studies have shown that emissions are generally spread over an area 12 miles long and 12 miles wide on takeoff or landing.

The list of ailments resulting from exposure to the chemicals emitted from aircraft is also long and distinguished……." Jet aircraft also emit nitrogen oxides which contribute to the formation of ozone. which is said to be a 'greenhouse gas'. The "…persistent formation of contrails is associated with increased cirrus cloud cover, which also warms the Earth's surface……..a report by the UK Royal Commission on Environmental Protection (states)…..the net effects of ozone, contrail and aviation-induced cloud cover is likely to triple the warming effect of aircraft emitted CO2 alone…" The aviation industry is very aware of this and over coming years new models will see improved fuel efficiency and the use of lighter materials.

On the flipside air travel is increasing all the time and the air will only get busier. Expect to see a lot more criss crossing patterns over cities as more and more budget airlines make it increasingly easy for people to drop by Fiji for a week. It could be observed that a cheap holiday overseas isn't so cheap in terms of planetary health. The article in 'Aviator' finishes by stating that 'sustainable aviation may be a matter of life and death'. There isn't a conspiracy here but it is no less concerning.

It's good to have an open mind, but ideally it should be tempered by a critical one as well. If there is a conspiracy involved with chemtrails it may be the fact that it takes a lot of attention away from the very real and varied excesses of government and corporate bodies worldwide, and detracts from the well understood problems associated with aviation pollution. I am sure the 'Illuminati' would enjoy the irony of a literal 'smokescreen'.