Abbott on notice

The multiple speed economy has exacerbated this with miners, and high earning public servants and business leaders adding an element of envy into the mix. While the Gini coefficient isn't out of the bottle, it can easily appear that inequality is increasing.

Those who supported Abbott at the last election wanted the "mess" cleaned-up, but instead of immediately embarking on an energetic program Abbott and his government suddenly went quiet.

A subsidiary problem is that electors actually like what Labor was promising, and Abbott played along with this, adopting key Labor policies such as the NDIS and Gonski. Electors want those policies as well as fiscal rectitude. It's going to be hard, if not impossible, to deliver.

Two themes dominated the last election: Trust (running through the promise to abolish the carbon tax, unwind the mismanagement of asylum seekers, and putting "adults" back in charge); and the economy (debt and deficits).

Trust relates to the personal – you mightn't like me, but you can trust me - the economy to performance.

The government's attempt to abandon Gonski seems to have had some effect on whether or not Abbott is viewed as trustworthy, impacting the personal, and the change of rhetoric on debt and deficits has impacted impressions of performance.

All of this has combined not only to undermine Abbott's first preference vote, but his support amongst non-Green minor parties.

Is all of this just a temporary glitch?

Not necessarily.

The electorate is more volatile than ever. Buyers regret could lead them back to the old supplier within 3 years. It all but happened to Labor between 2007 and 2010, and Rudd started off from a higher personal, but lower electoral, base than Abbott.

There is a certain triumphalism in some of the behaviour of Liberal ministers. That indicates they don't understand they didn't win, Labor lost. Without a compelling rationale for change they will not be able to effectively implement their policies, and then they will fail on the performance issues that matter most to their supporters – debt, deficit and the economy.

Federal Coalition governments are not particularly good at crafting a coherent story. That leaves them vulnerable to charges of ideological extremism and fundamentalism if electors don't understand why they are doing what they are doing, and why it is necessary.