2014 will be an important year for marriage equality

In 2014 the federal Coalition will decide whether to have a conscience vote, something which seems fairly likely given the Coalition's fundamental principle of individual freedom. Then parliament will proceed to a vote on the principle issue of marriage equality.

Never before will federal parliament have voted on marriage equality with all members free to vote as they will. Never before will marriage equality have had a real chance of passing.

There are naysayers who declare that marriage equality hasn't a chance, even with a conscience vote. They cite the low number of Coalition members who have declared support for reform.

But their judgement lacks historical perspective.

In 2010 Labor was where the Coalition is now. Only a handful of Labor members had declared support for marriage equality.

But when the ALP relaxed its policy in December 2011 by allowing a conscience vote the numbers willing to vote for reform climbed dramatically. Less than a year later, in September 2012, with a leader who strongly opposed any change, two thirds of Labor members voted for marriage equality.

The ALP's conscience vote did more than just allow Labor members to vote for reform, it gave them permission to declare their support for it. A Coalition conscience vote will have the same effect.

Obviously, a conscience vote will not, in and of itself, bring about marriage equality.

Marriage equality advocates and community supporters will still need to do all we can to muster a majority in both houses.

Australian Marriage Equality has already drawn up a list of seventy Coalition and Labor MPs and Senators who currently oppose marriage equality but who we think might be persuaded to change their minds.

Members were included because there is high support in their electorate, they strongly support a conscience vote, and they have no obvious religious affiliation that would block them voting for reform.

Only half the number of members on our list need to shift position for marriage equality to pass.