2014 will be an important year for marriage equality

A pessimist might see 2013 as an average year for marriage equality in Australia.

The reform moved forward in three of the countries most similar to us, Britain, New Zealand and the US. Even Utah now has marriage equality!

Meanwhile, Australians elected a new federal government that is anything but keen on the marriage equality.

At the same time the reform was voted down in three Australian state parliaments and overturned by the federal government in the ACT.

But marriage equality has never been achieved by pessimism. Every set back for the reform in 2013 has been accompanied by a step forward.

The federal election returned more out marriage equality supporters to federal parliament than ever before. At the end of the year supporters in all three parties joined in a cross-party group to ensure their efforts are co-ordinated.

The state initiatives also showed the way forward with state same-sex marriage bills advanced by cross-party co-operation, with Liberal and National MPs allowed a conscience vote and with more conservative MPs supporting reform than ever before.

Meanwhile, the High Court's decision to overturn marriage equality in the ACT was the most successful defeat we could have wished for.

The High Court cleared the path to federal reform by removing lingering concerns about the power of the federal government to enact laws for same-sex marriages. It left the door open to states passing same-sex marriage laws that are framed differently to the ACT's defunct statute.

Most of all, it allowed same-sex couples to marry for five days, showing the nation it has nothing to fear and a lot to gain from such marriages.

2013 was a much more successful year for marriage equality than appearances suggest.

But 2014 will be the year that counts.

In 2014 the federal Coalition will decide whether to have a conscience vote, something which seems fairly likely given the Coalition's fundamental principle of individual freedom. Then parliament will proceed to a vote on the principle issue of marriage equality.

Never before will federal parliament have voted on marriage equality with all members free to vote as they will. Never before will marriage equality have had a real chance of passing.

There are naysayers who declare that marriage equality hasn't a chance, even with a conscience vote. They cite the low number of Coalition members who have declared support for reform.

But their judgement lacks historical perspective.

In 2010 Labor was where the Coalition is now. Only a handful of Labor members had declared support for marriage equality.

But when the ALP relaxed its policy in December 2011 by allowing a conscience vote the numbers willing to vote for reform climbed dramatically. Less than a year later, in September 2012, with a leader who strongly opposed any change, two thirds of Labor members voted for marriage equality.

The ALP's conscience vote did more than just allow Labor members to vote for reform, it gave them permission to declare their support for it. A Coalition conscience vote will have the same effect.

Obviously, a conscience vote will not, in and of itself, bring about marriage equality.

Marriage equality advocates and community supporters will still need to do all we can to muster a majority in both houses.

Australian Marriage Equality has already drawn up a list of seventy Coalition and Labor MPs and Senators who currently oppose marriage equality but who we think might be persuaded to change their minds.

Members were included because there is high support in their electorate, they strongly support a conscience vote, and they have no obvious religious affiliation that would block them voting for reform.

Only half the number of members on our list need to shift position for marriage equality to pass.

But identifying who might change their mind is just the start.

Supporters of marriage equality in each of these electorates will need encouragement and resources to organise local campaigns.

Advocates for reform will need to focus their attention away from the inner-city, where marriage equality has already won the day, and focus instead on suburban and regional Australia where it is still a contested issue.

Most of all, advocates for reform on the centre right should begin making the case in a way that libertarians and social conservatives can support.

This means highlighting how allowing same-sex couples to marry enhances the freedom of individuals to take responsibility for their own lives, and how it strengthens relationships and binds families together.

If the centre left embraces marriage for same-sex couples as a matter of equality, anti-discrimination and inclusion the centre right will do the same because it is a matter of fairness, freedom and family.

Polls show Australians overwhelmingly believe marriage equality is inevitable. The question then becomes, why wait any longer?

Why allow any more same-sex partners to pass away before they have the opportunity to legally pledge their commitment to each other?

Why allow more children of same-sex couples to grow up without the opportunity of having married parents? Why allow more countries to precede Australia towards the goal of equality for all loving committed couples?

If, like me, you believe there's no reason to delay any longer, 2014 may be our year.