Egypt marches to a Saudi drummer

In 2009, the Houthis crossed into Saudi Arabia. It was mainly with Pakistani forces that they were driven back. During the first Iraqi War, while Saudi and other armies were focused upon the Iraqi forces in Kuwait, Pakistani troops guarded the southern border and other troops have been held at ready in Pakistan to come to protect the vital oil fields and installations.

The Saudis have been supporting Pakistan with generous grants for decades. Now, Pakistan is facing an unusual convergence of problems that it making it impossible for the Pakistanis to provide their customary military support for the Saudis.

At the end of November, the chief of army staff General ashfaq Parvez Kayani will retire. His successor has not been named. Whoever he is, he will have to deal with the consequences of the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan. Only the most optimistic are expecting the days to follow to be peaceful and that violence is likely to spill over the borders where it will be necessary for the army to be waiting to confront it.

Saudi Arabia will be vulnerable without Pakistani support. The skirmish in Damaj and the bombing in Bahrain have to be taken as a forerunner of what will be coming on a greater scale.

Saudi Arabia needs a replacement for the Pakistanis; and Egypt is the only choice. Large cash grants to Pakistan over many years have cemented those bonds of mutual dependents. Saudi Arabia has been generous as well with Egypt through the decades of Mubarak's rule and with El-Sisi without receiving much in return. Now, both are in need and Egypt has debts to repay; and those debts are increasing by the billions.

Within a few days of the reduction of aid by the U.S. to Egypt, the Egyptians signed an agreement with Russia to purchase fifteen billion dollars in military equipment that includes MIG-29 fighters. By financing the purchases, the Saudis are demonstrating to the Egyptian how important they are in Saudi plans and are sending a message to Washington that the separation has begun.

The Egyptian Foreign Minister Nadil Fahmy said in an interview that Egyptian and Saudi Arabian security are bound together . “The Egyptian-Saudi relationship is one of identity. No matter how much we agree or disagree regarding part of this relationship, it's a relationship of identity. But the Egyptian-US relationship is one of interests, regardless of our work it is not a relationship of identity. Egyptian national security is directly linked to Saudi national security, and vice versa. Whether we agree or disagree, national security in the two countries is linked.”

Saudi Arabia has risen to the forefront in Egypt's dealings with other nations and recognition of their dependence upon Saudi largess was reflected by the interim president of Egypt, Adly Mansour making his first state visit to Saudi Arabia . King Abdullah made it clear where the kingdom stands if Egypt is threatened. “Standing against any attempts to touch Egypt's internal affairs, particularly by the terrorists.” “Terrorist” is the term used to describe the Muslim Brotherhood.

While the Egyptians were celebrating the generosity of their benefactors, there was a not so subtle warning that a subsidized lunch is not a free lunch. On Oct. 27, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the deputy prime minister of the UAE and the minister of presidential affairs, said, “Arab support for Egypt will not last long, and Egypt must think about innovative, unconventional solutions.”

This warning came in the face of a ten percent inflation rate and a thirteen percent budget deficit. Heavy borrowing just to maintain spending without investing in the economy has pushed the national debt to eighty-nine percent of the GDP with an economic growth rate of a mere two percent. At least six percent is needed to absorb the increase in the labor force .

The violence and the political instability have blocked any investment in the economy. What Egypt requires is a powerful economic stimulus. The formation of the Army of Muhammad might be just what the economic doctor has ordered. Supplying, training, and commanding an army of a quarter of a million could see a vast infusion of capital into the Egyptian economy.

Saudi Arabia does not want two hundred and fifty thousand foreign mercenaries even if they are Moslem mercenaries inside of the Kingdom. The Saudis need to base them where there are facilities and control over them. The only place that fills the qualifications is Egypt; and what is a more “innovative, unconventional solutions” to Egypt's economic strife?
 

Source: http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Egypt-Marches-to-a-Saudi-Drummer.html