Don't blame Julia, blame Labor

Or perhaps not. Analysis of polling results from every state shows a decline in Labor's vote everywhere at about the same time.

This suggests not so much a Gillard or a Rudd effect, but a Labor effect, with poor performance at every level forming a negative feedback loop across the country to a point where it now appears that the natural state of the parties is somewhere in the region of Liberal 55-60% of the first preference vote and Labor 30-35%.

I can't imagine it will stay that way for ever - it's not in the nature for Australian elections to be as decisive as they have been lately - but it is a problem for the Labor Party everywhere and makes it imperative that they reform rather than recriminate.

The only exception to this rule, which in fact tends to prove it, is Victoria, where state Labor is polling well against the Liberals.

Analysis of our qualitative polling also tends to support this position. If Julia Gillard was the problem for WA Labor, then you would expect her to come up frequently as an issue for voters.

She does come up, but not that frequently, and generally from people who are traditional Liberal voters.

"Canberra" actually comes up more times than Gillard, and while it sometimes carries the connotation that federal labor is the problem, more often it is referring to the states rights agenda, which is particularly strong in WA.

Labor also gets, mentioned, but normally generically.

"All the hidden baggage that comes with Labor; the influence of small minded unionists."

"I have no real hesitation about him, other than that he doesn't really offer anything better than the Libs. It's his inevitable links to loony union people and Fed labor that I distrust."

"Labor in WA has consistently failed- refer Carmen Lawrence, Alan Carpenter. Gallop was not much better."

"I couldn't vote Labor at present- Canberra is a mess, Mark McGowan is a snide liar."