Even Republicans acknowledge that a direct-election republic won't happen

If a future federal government were foolish enough to go to a plebiscite, it seems that on the present figures the republicans would still not get to first base. On the Herald Sun survey they would clearly be defeated.

Even on the Newspoll they would have to hold every vote, including the shaky ones who say they are only partly in favour. And all this is before the people have had a chance to hear and see the campaign! Further, the polls since the referendum indicate no momentum towards a republic. Indeed, the Herald Sun survey indicates a move in the other direction, both overall and among the young who are against a republic.

Readers can be assured that those in favour of the status quo would mount a robust, and honest campaign to inform the people.

Mr Latham has made a strategic error in espousing the ARM strategy lock, stock and barrel. Apparently he has decided the his predecessor’s error in deciding that Badgery’s Creek will not be the site of the second Sydney airport and that a new site will be named by the party’s National Conference this month. According to The Sydney Morning Herald (6 January 2004) the party will not now name a new site. They don’t want to lose the votes of the battlers who chose to live a quiet life there. A point which seemed to elude the former leader, Mr Crean. Instead, a selection process will be announced. You can be assured that its recommendation will not be known before the next election.

He can now also disengage from the republic, if he wishes. He has a good excuse. That is the Senate Committee, which is in no hurry to finalise its investigation. Mr Latham knows that he should campaign on the issues that count among the rank and file. He can keep the elites on side by pointing to the committees work. After all, wasn’t this the reason for the ALP and the Democrats setting up the Committee? He won’t get any traction from this issue – worse, it will suggest to the battlers that he is pushing what they don’t want: the Keating agenda.