The present crisis, a pattern?

A product life cycle also goes through an S curve. In that case there is a fifth phase:

5. the degeneration phase in which cost rises because of over capacity and the producer will finally withdraw from the market.

The S curve of a transition

Figure 1: Four phases in a transition best visualized by means of an S – curve: Pre-development, Take off, Acceleration, Stabilization.

Spreading process of transitions

The process of the spreading of transitions over civilizations is influenced by a number of elements:

- physical barriers: oceans, deserts, mountain ranges, swamps, lakes

- socio cultural barriers: difference in culture and languages

- religious barriers

- psychological barriers

The Neolithic transition was the most transition for mankind. This first agricultural revolution (10000 – 3000 BC) forms the change from societies of hunter gatherers (20 – 50 people) close to water with a nomadic existence to a society of people living in settlements growing crops and animals. A hierarchical society came into existence. Joint organizations protected and governed the interests of the individual. Performing (obligatory) services for the community could be viewed as a first type of taxation. Stocks were set up with stock management, trade emerged, inequality and theft. Ways of administering justice were invented to solve conflicts within and between communities and war became a way of protecting interests.