Economists have long acknowledged that 'asset bubbles always end in tears'. Why then are we encouraging the same mistakes?
Considerable resources must be spent educating society about the advantages those with monopoly rights have over the rest of the economy. Similar to climate sceptics, property bubble sceptics see nothing wrong with First Home Owners committing to a lifetime of historically high mortgage payments. A blind eye is turned from the $100's of extra dollars fleeing local communities each week and heading towards deep pockets in the banking and real estate industries. The multiplier effect of such behaviour is damaging small local business, our largest employer.
TV shows such as Location, location location feverishly promote the value of prime locations as an investment strategy.
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Why then does the economics profession ignore the role of location?
The advantage of living near a new train station or public hospital is delivered in higher land values. These publicly funded advantages result in private windfalls, leading to the deadweight losses of inefficient taxation. The recent Committee of Melbourne's Moving Melbourne report identified the need for 'value capture policy' to finance the infrastructure deficit. Lucy Turnbull has advocated for similar policies in Sydney's Cities Expert Panel.
Meanwhile small business struggles with rising rents, while surrounding them here in Melbourne is a commercial vacancy rate of some 24% (PDF, Appendix C). Such speculative supply kept off the market forces up rents, undermining our export competitiveness.
Treasurer Swan's recent business tax reform initiative asked the corporate community to orchestrate their own tax cuts. They threw in the towel early when competing lobbyists couldn't come to an agreement within the terms of reference. The stalemate was a call out to government to tax those without a strong lobby group – the consumer, with a higher GST. Chris Jordan, the head of this body, has now been appointed the lead of the ATO.
Those locked out of the housing market see some $2.6 billion per year given to negative gearing property investors over the last decade, 92% of which is spent on existing housing. The latest addition to Treasurer Swan's 'price of inequality' is the booming Self Managed Super Fund industry. All other things being equal, those who already own a home are now permitted not just negative gearing write-offs, but a capital gains tax exemption for residential property investments via an SMSF vehicle.
Gen X, Y and Z will soon realise that baby boomers own nearly half of housing wealth. The latest empowerment of SMSF's announced in the MYEFO will only enhanced this generational inequity. Treasurer Swan seemed genuine in his pre-budget moves to remove the capital gains exemptions for SMSF's barely two years after their introduction into the residential sector. Unfortunately the lobbyists cornered him and single mums were hit with the cutbacks instead.
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The power of organised oligopoly was dramatically demonstrated in the challenge to pokie reform when PM Julia jumped at the thought of a $20 million campaign across marginal seats by the Australian Hotels Association. The blight on democracy was compounded by the revelation that only $3 million was required for the desired policy outcome.
Lest we forget - the Victorian pokie licence auction, slammed by the auditor general as a $3 billion giveaway.
For the level playing field to truly exist, the power of monopoly must be broken down for all to see. The cheekily titled 'digital dividend' Senator Conroy is proposing could well hold the key. Instead of a fee simple auction of the electromagnetic spectrum's 700 khz bandwidth, an annual lease could be charged for what is described as 'the waterfront real estate' of the EMS. This lease would be based on an annual valuation of the bandwidth's value. The value of these property rights is destined to escalate once iphone 10 allows individuals to holographically transport themselves to the other side of the globe. Over time, government could share in the rising value of the earth, the economic rent, to keep price overheads low as classical economists once championed.
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