Syria: on the road to ruin

There was, for a while, a ray of light amid the darkness when United Nations envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi appeared to have brokered a truce for the Eid al-Adha holiday, just four days when he said there might be a small step towards peace.

But the move was dead before it began when Assad refused to allow international observers into the country to monitor the ceasefire. In the event, and by generous estimates, the truce lasted for about four hours before both sides were at it again, blaming each other (of course) for the violations.

Leaving aside Assad's intransigence, the total failure of the warring sides to take any notice of a truce constructed by one of the United Nations' most senior and experienced diplomats, further underlines the hopelessness of an outside solution imposed without force of arms. As one observer said "this conflict has taken on a dynamic of its own".

So, to ask the obvious question, where do we go from here? At the UN Russia and China are continuing to shield Assad from all but the mildest of sanctions; the United States, which had earlier been ready to arm the rebels with sophisticated weaponry, is now backing away from that position following (unconfirmed) reports that Al-Qaida fighters are among the international forces now active in the country.

However, as the recent downing of the helicopter proves, those weapons are getting through; whether they will ever be in sufficient numbers to tilt the balance in the conflict remains to be seen.

For now it seems inevitable that over the next few months we will be seeing more of the same. That means grim house-to-house fighting, unverifiable reports of a suburb re-taken here, an army base overrun there. Meanwhile the death toll, now standing at well over 35,000 in the 19-month conflict, will continue to rise.

This is a war of attrition, and while these kinds of wars usually find a winner, the time frames can be measured in years rather than months or weeks. The only way a speedy resolution can be found would be for Assad to step down and for a more presentable Government figure to offer negotiations with the rebels, but there is no sign of that happening anytime soon.

Meanwhile Syria slips further into ruin – a nation in name only.