Syria: on the road to ruin

Slowly and perhaps inevitably, Syria is slipping towards the status of a failed State. The civil war has reached stalemate, both sides at the point of exhaustion; neither capable of delivering a knock-out blow on the other.

Both Government and rebels seek outside support to deliver victory, but in New York the United Nations, which should be the most active in finding a solution, is embroiled in a stalemate of its own as the five permanent members of its Security Council, all with the power of veto, are split on who to back and what to do next.

Meanwhile in Damascus, Aleppo and many other cities around the stricken nation, basic services are breaking down, public servants have deserted their posts and people are mutilated and dying, day after day after day.

It is a measure of the level to which the Government of President Bashar al-Assad has sunk that it is now welcoming Iraqi and Iranian Shias into the country to fight alongside what remains of its armed forces. In doing so Assad has lost any claim to legitimacy and is simply just another warlord fighting over the decayed and ravaged remains of the Syrian State.

Of course the Free Syrian Army – as we conveniently call the rebels confronting Assad – has been welcoming outside assistance almost since the beginning of the civil war 19 months ago. Fighters, weapons and materiel have flowed in from Sunni-controlled States in the Gulf, turning the conflict into a holy war between the two main antagonistic branches of Islam.

And the war is being played out on the wider stage with Russia committed to propping up the regime in order to preserve its last remaining toe-hold in the Middle East, and the United States seeking the overthrow of the anti-American Assad in the increasingly forlorn hope that he will be replaced by a democrats better disposed towards the West.

The fact that the rebels are now capable of shooting down army helicopters with what apparently are shoulder-launched antiaircraft missiles, is proof that increasingly sophisticated weaponry is being funnelled to them. If these are deployed in any numbers Assad's air power, the one significant advantage his side has had up to now, will be largely neutralised.

It should be remembered that similar missiles supplied to the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan a quarter of a century ago proved to be the beginning of the end of the Soviet Union's attempt to occupy the country.

The internationalisation of the conflict within Syria increases the possibility that it could spread across borders. Already there is clear evidence that Lebanon-based Hezbollah militants, who are strident supporters of the Assad regime, are shelling Free Syrian Army positions across the border and that Hezbollah fighters are joining Assad forces on the ground inside Syria.

Lebanese nationals have been counted among the dead after a Free Syrian Army attack on a town close to the Lebanese border. Ominously, Free Syrian Army military commanders in the area have said that if the attacks continue they would feel justified in penetrating South Lebanon to neutralise the threat. The situation in Lebanon has further deteriorated since the assassination of the country's security chief which many blame on Hezbollah.

Jordan, a moderate influence in the Middle East, has its own fears of what is happening in Syria and has reportedly asked Western countries for support should the conflict spread over its long northern border.

And Syrian-Turkish relations are at an all-time low following cross-border shelling. Turkey, which has lost some of its citizens in the incidents, is a fierce opponent of the Assad regime and has not ruled out armed intervention if the provocations continue.

There was, for a while, a ray of light amid the darkness when United Nations envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi appeared to have brokered a truce for the Eid al-Adha holiday, just four days when he said there might be a small step towards peace.

But the move was dead before it began when Assad refused to allow international observers into the country to monitor the ceasefire. In the event, and by generous estimates, the truce lasted for about four hours before both sides were at it again, blaming each other (of course) for the violations.

Leaving aside Assad's intransigence, the total failure of the warring sides to take any notice of a truce constructed by one of the United Nations' most senior and experienced diplomats, further underlines the hopelessness of an outside solution imposed without force of arms. As one observer said "this conflict has taken on a dynamic of its own".

So, to ask the obvious question, where do we go from here? At the UN Russia and China are continuing to shield Assad from all but the mildest of sanctions; the United States, which had earlier been ready to arm the rebels with sophisticated weaponry, is now backing away from that position following (unconfirmed) reports that Al-Qaida fighters are among the international forces now active in the country.

However, as the recent downing of the helicopter proves, those weapons are getting through; whether they will ever be in sufficient numbers to tilt the balance in the conflict remains to be seen.

For now it seems inevitable that over the next few months we will be seeing more of the same. That means grim house-to-house fighting, unverifiable reports of a suburb re-taken here, an army base overrun there. Meanwhile the death toll, now standing at well over 35,000 in the 19-month conflict, will continue to rise.

This is a war of attrition, and while these kinds of wars usually find a winner, the time frames can be measured in years rather than months or weeks. The only way a speedy resolution can be found would be for Assad to step down and for a more presentable Government figure to offer negotiations with the rebels, but there is no sign of that happening anytime soon.

Meanwhile Syria slips further into ruin – a nation in name only.