Accessions to power: are women prime ministers different?

Howard's 1985 win over Opposition Leader Peacock was not delegitimised by the media, nor did the media continually contest his leadership because he won by party room majority, although some polls favoured Peacock. When in 1989 Peacock won over Howard the media, or parts of it, may have deemed this a wise choice, but the party room's power and right to make the choice remained unassailed.

Alexander Downer's defeat of John Hewson by majority vote in the 1993 post-election party room challenge may have surprised media and public, but led to no charges of 'illegitimate leadership'. Focus was on 'the numbers': who has or doesn't have them in determining parliamentary party leadership. Party polling led to Downer's standing down and Howard's taking over – but it was not the voters who promoted Howard into Liberal opposition leadership. Again, it was the party room.

When Paul Keating won the 1991 caucus ballot over Hawke, the media did not continually assail his Prime Ministership because his accession came through caucus majority – despite Hawke's public popularity. Keating was criticised for 'arrogance', not because the caucus preferred him at his second Hawke challenge.

Malcolm Turnbull's ousting of Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader did not meet with a media charge of illegitimate leadership through vote-by-party-room. When in December 2009 Tony Abbott in turn ousted Turnbull, the media did not deem the accession 'wrong' because public popularity favoured Turnbull, not Abbott. It was a 'shock' (41-42 votes), but media focus was on the party room's vote against the Government's Emissions Trading Scheme (54-29). One commentator questioned the 'legitimacy' of the party room's choice of a leader holding one-fifth 'popular' support of the public and its negation of the climate change policy. But he did not contest legitimacy of the process of choosing Opposition Leader.

Now to the Beazley-Crean-Latham-Beazley-Rudd displacements. Simon Crean became ALP Opposition Leader when Kim Beazley resigned from the post following the 2001 election defeat. Crean had no easy ride. Beazley stood in the background with supporters running a rumble in the caucus, ultimately leading to a challenge. Despite public opinion polls apparently favouring Beazley over Crean or at least supporting Howard as 'preferred Prime Minister', Crean won (58-34). Hence Crean remained Opposition Leader. Later he resigned at the behest of a caucus group. In a Beazley-Mark Latham contest, Latham (47-45) was surprise winner. Yet again, no public vote.

Criticism of Latham centered not on the process: caucus leadership vote, but his style, particularly public comments and appearances. Beazley's January 2005 return to leadership, replacing Latham, followed Labor's poll defeat. His return came not through public 'vote', but by caucus: Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, potential 'top job' candidates, stood aside.

In December 2006, the end to Beazley's leadership was not by public vote but caucus challenge. Who challenged? None but Rudd.

According to media reports, the NSW 'Right' pledged its support to Rudd, contingent upon his challenging prior to the 2006 festive season. In November Rudd told Beazley of his intention to contest the leadership. In December Beazley announced a leadership and frontbench spill, voting occurring on 4 December. Rudd (with Gillard as his deputy) won 49 to 39 caucus votes. Gillard became deputy unopposed.

Rudd and Gillard led the ALP to power in 2007, Rudd winning his Griffith (Qld) seat, Gillard her seat, Lalor (Victoria). That he won leadership and hence Prime Ministership through NSW Right support features nowhere in present criticism that his successor, Gillard, gained leadership with that very same group's support. Rather, 'Right' support features strongly in the Gillard critique, along with her taking the Prime Ministership from her predecessor: Rudd's standing down, Gillard was elected unopposed. Twenty-three days later, in July, she announced an August election.

On 27 February 2012, the most recent challenge, Gillard as Prime Minister won against Rudd decisively: 71-31. Thus by caucus votes Rudd came to power and by caucus votes he lost. By caucus support Gillard came to power, and by caucus votes she retained it.

To date twenty-seven Prime Ministers have served Australia, ten being defeated at a general election, including McMahon, Fraser, Keating and Howard. Yet '21 changes of Prime Minister without an election' have occurred:

• vice-regal intervention: Whitlam
• voluntary departure: Barton, Fisher, Page, Forde, McEwen, Menzies
• party-room/caucus coups: Hughes, Menzies, Gorton, Hawke, Rudd
• death: Lyons, Curtin, Holt
• defeat in Parliament: Deakin (2), Watson, Reid, Fisher, Fadden