China from the inside out

I have a final topic to address: Politics. Now before anyone accuses me of being soft on communism, let me state here and now that I am a democrat. What I want to do here is challenge our own media to lift their game and improve their commentary on China.

We expect biased reporting and propaganda from a Chinese media which is controlled by the Party. The result is that nobody, including ordinary Chinese, takes it seriously. That's why a free press is so important: we usually get to hear both sides of an argument. Why then do we devalue this ideal by focusing on the negative aspects of Chinese politics and government? Why is there a refusal to give credit where it is due?

For example; like it or not, the Chinese Communist party has lifted millions of people out of poverty and put them on a path to a moderately better lifestyle. A significant human rights achievement in anybody's book. Yet few commentators acknowledge this fact.

Let me continue: If you were the President of a nation which contained 20% of the world's population; 56 ethnic minority peoples; multiple borders with other countries (some friendly and some not); and which had a humiliating history of foreign occupation and a self-destructive history of social and political disintegration; how would you govern?

If you had managed to guide this unruly giant through the early difficult years of civil war and multiple political, social, and economic crises, would you hand over the reins of power before the development task is complete?

If you had to harness the competing interests of various factions and direct their energy towards the national good rather than their own selfish agendas, could you do it with less executive power than the president of China and his Politburo wield today?

Point: China walks along the edge of a precipice. It's a dangerous journey. We (the West) need to understand how easy it would be for the Chinese state to collapse and disintegrate. A look at history should explain why this is an ever-present worry for China's leadership. That's why more money is spent on internal security than on external defence.

More questions: Is the Arab Spring a model for China? Don't bet on it. Has the Arab Spring set a good example? Not yet. One would think that newly independent smaller societies should make the transition from dictatorship to democracy much quicker and easier than a large society such as China. The fact that they haven't done so yet, and don't look like doing so for awhile is instructive. There is always the risk that one faction or another will gain power by less than democratic means.

China is watching closely. But China will never risk 30 years of measurable progress and future prosperity by tipping the system upside down for a democratic ideal. The risk is not worth it. Sure, the central government is creating a problem for itself in the future by not allowing even incremental democratic change. Right now their only instinct is self-preservation.

In my opinion, barring economic catastrophe, it is more likely to entrench its power further. We might end up waiting another generation for top-down change. Either that, or one day the poor and the disenfranchised will coalesce and there will be another revolution.

At the moment however, the peasants are unorganised, the intellectuals are cowed, and the middle class has its snout in the trough. Until the latter experience some economic pain, there will be no serious bottom-up demands for change.

The older generations remember the warlords, the anti-Japanese war, the civil war, the Great Leap Forward, and the Cultural Revolution. Although they might complain about corruption and injustice, unless there is an economic catastrophe, Chinese people will accept this political reality and make the best of it. A rational fear of social chaos underlies this mind-set.