How could Iran militarily close the Strait of Hormuz?

The velocity and volatility of challenges between Iran and the West (the US) is very fast. This week, Iran’s navy has started military exercises in international waters around and beyond the Strait of Hormuz near the mouth of the Persian Gulf. The drill comes in wake of mounting international pressures concerning the country’s nuclear program and guessings that Iran may be about to block the Strait of Hormuz as a reprisal.

This event has made its impact by influencing the oil price. In my previous article, analysis showed that under certain circumstances Iran  has a legal right to block the Strait of Hormuz for reasons of  state security.

This article analyses an Iranian military strategy revolving around a decision to block this waterway, without intending to  exaggerate Iranian capability or frighten the world. It is just to emphasise that a blockage is not  impossible as it is perceived to be in the West. Geopolitically, Iran is well positioned  and for this reason a military confrontation between western powers and Iran could prove detrimental to both regional and world stability, and of course, to  the world economy. Conclusions reached in this article point to diplomacy as the logical means of resolving  the current impasse (a win-win process); with a military confrontation viewed as highly irrational.

The core value of the straits is well known to those familiar  with the strategic role of the sea in international relations. It was once said (by a seasoned English sailor) long before the discovery of oil, that if a country controls the world's oceans, it is capable of controlling  the world,  if a country controls the strategic straits, it is capable of controlling the world's ocean.  

Today, oil is one of the most vital commodities making  oil-rich regions of strategic interest to international powers. The Middle East and especially its Persian Gulf, forms the world's most important energy source and its only gateway, the Strait of Hormuz, is of vital importanc.

Approximately 40 percent of world oil and most  oil of the littoral states of the Persian Gulf - for  example, more than 88 percent of Saudi's oil, 98 percent of Iraqi oil, 99 percent of the United Arabic Emirates, and 100 percent of Kuwaiti and Qatari oil, and on average 97 percent of the littoral states' oil - passes through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, 50 percent of other commodities from  Persian Gulf countries also pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy experts believe that if the Strait of Hormuz were to be  blocked, the world would face a deficit of around 20 million barrels in oil supply which would  double the price of oil. Alternative routes such as the Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea would  not meet  current demand, and  whilst the East Oman and Red Sea are considered to be  potential alternative routes for military purposes, realizing this alternative  would be extremely costly and time-consuming.

Geographically, The Strait of Hormuz is  at least 110 km long (defined according to different sources) with a width of about 35 km in different areas  stretching to more than 50 km  in other areas. The depth of this waterway varies from 35 to about  100 meters.Accordingly hyper tankers, aircraft carriers, and submarines crossing this strait are faced with many constraints.

In the case of a military confrontation, Iran could adopt  two different tactics to block the Strait of Hormuz:

1. Conventional and targeted tactics,

2. Unconventional and blind tactics.

1. Conventional and targeted tactics

Conventional tactics involve using the following military capabilities:

A. Speed boats

Historically, using speed boats in warfare traces back to the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88). These vessels proved  effective  against combat vessels, not to mention transport ships. Such vessels are equipped with  marine radar, advanced electronic communication systems, short-range anti-ship cruise missiles with a range of 25 km, naval mines and torpedoes with medium and large calibre weapons, along with traditional semi heavy rocket launchers and missiles which can be thrown from the shoulders for short-and long-term blockage of the strait , and also to fight any combat naval fleets attempting to open the path.

High-speed vessels with sophisticated equipment also support operations at night, and in inclement weather. They have shown their versatility  in large and small military exercises many times in recent years. The Iranian army has been equipped with  the world's fastest boats comprising unmanned speed boats designed to execute  required missions.

B. Submarines

The Iranian Navy has been equipped with submarines which increase Iranian military power in the region. These submarines can use torpedoes, mines and missiles to target combatants and can remain under water for days or weeks. In addition to Russian Kilo submarines, Iran has designed others  including Whales, Ghadir, and Fateh, all  tailored to the Persian Gulf geography. They are able to be placed  in the seabed and are resistant to sonar and radar systems.

The number of submarines is estimated to be more than 20 which are capable of blocking the Strait and engage  the surface and subsurface fleet of any combatant. These submarines can carry dozens of torpedoes and mines. Iran also has small submarines known as Martoob(wet) which carry one or more persons for commando operations, mine dispersal and firing torpedoes.This equipment along with other naval capabilities can operate in areas that can block the strait and operate  in narrow shallow waters.

C. Warships

Iranian warships include different classes of frigates and destroyers (USS Protector). These vessels are capable of firing anti-ship ballistic missiles with a range of 120 to 170 km. These vessels are also equipped with canons.  having a range from 114 and 76 mm.  From bitter experience with the US in  a short war in 1987, Iran no longer invests in these vessels largely.

D. Anti-ship cruise missiles andBallistic missiles

Iran has made two kinds of anti-ship cruise missiles:

1. Anti-ship beach –deploying surface-to-surface cruise missiles;

2. Ballistic missiles which can be launched from the heartland.

The launchers of both are photovoltaic systems with accessories over-riding air and sea units and can be used to detect, identify and attack naval targetson self-reliance systems

Another kind of launcher can  hide inland 70 to 150 kilometers inside Iranian territory and even in Kerman Province, to cover  the Strait of Hormuz (of course hitting a specific target  requires coordination). These systems have been provided in large numbers to the Iranian army  and are ready for operation.

Regarding ballistic missiles, China introduced these missiles to the world. Iran could thus obtain them and indeed, the Russians have claimed recently they too could use ballistic missiles against naval targets.

Three types of anti-ship ballistic missiles have been introduced to the Iranian army. They were named as:

• Persian Gulf
• Sejjil
• Tondar

All have a large angle (more than 45 degrees from a horizontal path) with solid fuel enabling them to hit ships from above. They can resist electronic warfare. With  high speed at impact, high angles of attack, and a high volume of missile warheads they are made  to destroy vessels with high precision.

But perhaps the most notorious anti-ship ballistic missiles is Sejjil. The  targeting and guidance systems of this missile are  not clear, but its 2,000-kilometer range makes it capable  of reaching all targets. Its kinetic energy alone is enough to destroy any target; its warhead has at least 500 kg of explosives.The launchers of these missiles are going to be dispersed inside the territory for misleading the enemies' counter-operations or for electronic war.

E. Bombers and Helicopters

The Iranian air force has been equipped with missiles having multiple deployment capabilities against naval targets in the Persian Gulf. These missiles include guided air-to-surface missiles, with optical, laser and radar powers. Iran has around 200 ready-for-combat aircraft with the  aims of engaging in air-to-air combat and targeting ships.

Helicopters can also be  used. A type of helicopter named Shahed 285 equipped with anti-ship cruise missiles and another type named  Mil 171 with the ability to fire long-range missiles are two examples. They can fly from many different areas  to create a military threat as well as threaten commercial fleets. Cobra attack helicopters, whilst old, have  proved to be effective in previous sea exercises. Some of these helicopters were equipped with Maverick missiles and  anti-ship missiles.

Other defense capabilities comprise flying boats,drones, modernizedartillery and rocket systemsthat can be deployed  withother Iranian conventional capabilities to block the Strait of Hormuz.

2. Unconventional tactics

In short, unconventional tactics , which is unpredictable and cannot be tackled in the military equations regularly, thereby undermining any counter-attack strategy.

A. Suicide attack,

The Iranian Islamic Guards Corps has put unconventional attacks on its strategy agenda. It has registered thousands of volunteers for suicide operations. Copies of the registration forms show that the "martyrdom-seekers" could volunteer for suicide operations against the targets. The registration forms also quote Khomeini's declaration that "[I]f the enemy assaults the lands of the Muslims and its frontiers, it is mandatory for all Muslims to defend it by all means possible [be it by] offering life or property," and current supreme leader Ali Khamene'i's remarks that "…….martyrdom-seeking operations mark the highest point of the greatness of a nation and the peak of [its] epic. A man, a youth, a boy, and a girl who are prepared to sacrifice their lives for the sake of the interests of the nation and their religion is a  [symbol of the] greatest pride, courage, and bravery." If the conventional means fail to address the  Iranian military goals in the Persian Gulf, suicide attacks may be put in the military agenda.

 B. Widespread Naval Mining

A naval mine is a self-contained explosive device placed in the water to destroy surface ships or submarines. These mines are deposited and left to wait until they are triggered by the approach of, or contact with, an enemy vessel. Naval mines can be used offensively—to hamper enemy shipping movements or lock vessels into a harbor; or block a waterway.During the Iran–Iraq War from 1980 to 1988, the belligerents mined several areas of the Persian Gulf and nearby waters. On April 14, 1988, the USS Samuel B. Roberts (FFG-58) allegedly  struck an Iranian M-08/39 mine in the central Persian Gulf shipping lane, wounding 10 sailors. In light of this experience  Iran may lay a lot of mines around the Strait of Hormuz to block it.

C. Drowning Large Tankers.

Finally, just by scuttling three or four large ships Iran can create an obstacle in the shallow Strait of Hormuz.  In other words, sinking four of their own empty tankers creates a marine hazard. So, there are many ways to block the strait.

The above summation  indicates  that any war is destructive for the International Community. Iran wants to cooperate with the IAEA and resolve its problems within a routine framework. Iran also has a strong political will to develop nuclear technology and advanced forms of energy to tackle global climate change,  long term energy needs and ameliorate the transition from a global dependency on fossil fuels to more advanced cleaner energy forms. In this context, it is possible for Iran and the IAEA to resolve all remaining issues according to the Work Plan on “Understanding of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Agency on the Modalities of Resolution of the Outstanding Issues” (INFCIRC/711).

For all the above reasons, constructive dialogue is the only way to resolve suspicions created by  Iran’s nuclear program.  Acting within an accepted  framework and timetable, allows all states to contribute positively to a mutually desired goal, thereby reducing the military burden on all and contributing to comprehensive sustainable peace.  Iranians have an expression: "Destruction is very easy; the true challenge is to build and make something together". Or "one action of sanity renders one hundred sages busy".