Dispatch from the climate front

We did it. Australia has legislated a price on carbon pollution. But with the United Nations climate talks already underway in Durban, South Africa, now is not the time to rest on our laurels.

The price on carbon is a historic achievement in Australian politics. The mechanism will reduce our pollution and begin the transition towards a clean energy economy. Australia's actions will also inject much needed momentum towards a global deal to tackle climate change.

But that deal is still a long way off, and the science says that time is running out.

The International Energy Agency this month warned the world only has 5 years to create a system that will keep our global temperature increase to less than 2 degrees. If we pass that threshold, we will no longer be able to prevent the 'weather on steroids' the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is predicting, such as extreme heatwaves, tropical cyclones and droughts.

While a global deal in Durban is unlikely, substantive progress can still be made, a point proved last year in Cancun.

The Cancun Agreements established for the first time that countries should limit warming to 2 degrees. They also captured the mitigation pledges of countries that make up 80% of the world greenhouse pollution, including the US and China.

Outside the UN, the last 2 years have seen close to 100 countries announce significant domestic climate change policies. And global investment in clean energy such as wind and solar was greater than investment in new fossil fuel capacity in the electricity sector over the same period.

These developments mark the transition from a 'treaty before action' to an 'action and agreement' approach. That is because countries like Australia are beginning to realise that the decoupling of prosperity from pollution will be fundamental in maintaining international competitiveness, even before the perfect agreement is finalised.

But the future of one important agreement, the Kyoto Protocol, will be a key measure of success in Durban.

Kyoto's first commitment period expires in 2012 and one of the objectives in Durban will be to secure a second period. The treaty is enormously significant because it is the first and only international legally binding treaty to reduce global emissions.

Kyoto covers 37 developed countries responsible for the bulk of historical emissions. This makes the treaty an emotional priority for developing countries and other countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

The good news is, Australia can now sign onto and finalise new emissions reductions targets under the second commitment period. We can finally move away from our embarrassing 5% reduction target on 2000 levels by 2020 and agree to 15% cuts, now the domestic policy framework has largely been met.

While only 5% cuts are currently being promised under the scheme, targets can be adjusted within the 5-25% range by the new Climate Change Authority written into the package.

The 5% target implies Australia will deliver emission reduction similar to Canada but far less than the EU, UK, New Zealand, Norway and the US. The average reduction among comparable advance economies is 19% on 2020 levels rendering anything but a 15% target by Australia woefully low.

As a record setter as one of the highest per capita emitters and top 15th polluting country, Australia must be encouraged to add momentum to the talks by setting a new ambitious Kyoto target. Australia should also use it's good relationships with countries like Japan and the US to encourage them to sign onto Kyoto as well.

A strong Kyoto outcome in Durban could help circumnavigate the 'you go first, no you go first' game that has plagued the UN talks. Progress on this front will increase trust and aspirations at future meetings.

In light of the action countries have taken domestically, and the progress expected in Durban, hopes are high that a full multilateral mechanism to limit pollution and avoid the worst impacts of climate change could be reached by 2015.

A global deal would incentivize further action by transforming the race to the bottom to a race to the top, as countries compete to create low carbon alternatives. Investors will have confidence in a single administration; and a global system of accountability will allow countries to take action with confidence that others will deliver.

Without a global agreement, the largest stakeholders of all in the climate debate, young people, will be the biggest losers. We are dependent on the decision makers of today on the kind of world we will inherit tomorrow.

The famine in East Africa, drought in Tuvalu, fatal floods in Vietnam and Thailand and our own erratic weather over the last decade are the warming signs on the road towards irreversible climate disruption. If the IPCC report made one thing clear - without International action we are running head first into disasters we cannot predict.

A safe climate future has yet to be secured for young people, but Australia can now play a far more constructive role towards it's nonnegotiable end in Durban.