While only 5% cuts are currently being promised under the scheme, targets can be adjusted within the 5-25% range by the new Climate Change Authority written into the package.
The 5% target implies Australia will deliver emission reduction similar to Canada but far less than the EU, UK, New Zealand, Norway and the US. The average reduction among comparable advance economies is 19% on 2020 levels rendering anything but a 15% target by Australia woefully low.
As a record setter as one of the highest per capita emitters and top 15th polluting country, Australia must be encouraged to add momentum to the talks by setting a new ambitious Kyoto target. Australia should also use it's good relationships with countries like Japan and the US to encourage them to sign onto Kyoto as well.
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A strong Kyoto outcome in Durban could help circumnavigate the 'you go first, no you go first' game that has plagued the UN talks. Progress on this front will increase trust and aspirations at future meetings.
In light of the action countries have taken domestically, and the progress expected in Durban, hopes are high that a full multilateral mechanism to limit pollution and avoid the worst impacts of climate change could be reached by 2015.
A global deal would incentivize further action by transforming the race to the bottom to a race to the top, as countries compete to create low carbon alternatives. Investors will have confidence in a single administration; and a global system of accountability will allow countries to take action with confidence that others will deliver.
Without a global agreement, the largest stakeholders of all in the climate debate, young people, will be the biggest losers. We are dependent on the decision makers of today on the kind of world we will inherit tomorrow.
The famine in East Africa, drought in Tuvalu, fatal floods in Vietnam and Thailand and our own erratic weather over the last decade are the warming signs on the road towards irreversible climate disruption. If the IPCC report made one thing clear - without International action we are running head first into disasters we cannot predict.
A safe climate future has yet to be secured for young people, but Australia can now play a far more constructive role towards it's nonnegotiable end in Durban.
Heather Bruer is currently in Durban for the UN climate talks.
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