Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will

There does exist an argument for pessimism about the future of modern human society, indeed humanity itself that is based on the Copernican Principle.

Most humans who have ever lived, there are now 7 billion of us, have lived very recently, indeed could well now be alive. So, should it transpire that humanity were to be wiped out in some calamity, it follows that our particular appearance as individuals in the timeline of humanity would not be at all special. If we are at, say, the first 0.001% of all humans that shall ever live, meaning the species has a long and rosy future, our place as individuals in the human timeline would be most special indeed. Should we go now, our place would be, by comparison, rather untypical. By application of the Copernican Principle it follows that we should be pessimists.

We, seemingly, need to reduce the intuitive confidence that we place upon the longevity of man.

The Cambridge theoretical astrophysicist, and former Astronomer Royal, Sir Martin Rees argued that the 21^st century might be "our final century." Despite what we might say about theoretical physics, science and technology continues to accelerate. Rees argues that the advancement of science and technology, coupled with its increasing diffusion, increasingly opens the prospect that they could be used for malevolent, ultimately catastrophically destructive, purposes. He argues that we have a "50-50" chance of making it through the century in one piece.

Such thoughts are not pleasant ones, but they certainly are worth thinking about, no matter how abstract, when we consider such matters as nuclear security and the global ecological crisis.

There are, however, grounds for optimism.

Throughout history, to be sure in fits and starts, that is to say it by no means has been linear, one can detect the reality of moral progress. Humanity, ironically enough following on from empiricist arguments in moral philosophy that lead ultimately to rationalist conclusions, has an innate and creative capacity for moral reasoning and the acquisition, indeed application, of moral knowledge. How the dedicated information processing areas of the mind enable us to do this is now becoming accessible to cognitive science.

The use of moral reasoning, not to be confused with reason itself, throughout history has seen us abandon behaviours and institutions that previously were taken for granted, but which we came to appreciate were morally deficient. Slavery is a notable example.

Since the 1960s, following on from the rise of popular social movements, Western civilisation has achieved quite important advances in the moral realm. For example, if it were now in 1962, I doubt whether there would be any mountains left on the landscape of Afghanistan. Unrestrained strategic bombing is something our governments cannot get away with anymore. Notice that this even applies after the worst single act of terrorism in human history. This is a very powerful indicator demonstrating moral progress.

Movements for nuclear sanity and ecological protection have an important ethical component. They essentially serve as movements that are trying to assert the rights of future generations and non-human life. This is something new and, again, is a good indicator of moral progress.

The global economic crisis, often cited in the case for pessimism, might be used to argue the opposite. Neoliberal economic restructuring, despite all the fancy topology, is essentially based on what Adam Smith called "the vile maxim of the masters of mankind," which he stipulated held throughout history - that being "all for ourselves and nothing for other people." This has been accompanied by a certain coarseness and an overt focus on individual wealth and gain. It should not perplex us that application of the vile maxim has led to increasing inequality between social classes.

Does this mean we have gone backwards?